Everything's complicated and my hesitation about replacing Biden up to now has been informed by polls showing other candidates not doing much better. But a lot of people seem remarkably certain that Harris specifically could not win a general election for reasons I think they should say out loud.
There's a very specific personal vulnerability there that I'm surprised hasn't come up much on the right, but my sense is that doubt here is more about, uh, demographic concerns that haven't really been fleshed out or justified explicitly. Could be wrong.
This is very valid and true, but if the choice is between her a guy who cannot reliably complete sentences without a teleprompter...I dunno, man.
bsky.app/profile/lewm...
To be fair, the last time she was in a national election, everyone thought she would be a formidable candidate but she did terribly, and was widely considered a surprisingly poor campaigner. So there is a data point.
Anyway, if Biden stays in, which seems likely, I don't think telling people "no, he's fine, actually" for the next several months is tenable. I don't know what you say instead. But openly lying to voters over and over again about something they know to be untrue probably hurts Dems long-term. So.
This is what the numbers have looked like for ages. Again, not especially promising for anyone. The question is whether anyone else would be more likely to gain ground between now and November. bsky.app/profile/perr...
Laying my cards on the table: I think a black woman can definitely win and also that Harris is weak. She's tied to the Biden record and a mediocre campaigner; the Willie Brown thing is genuinely messy. Zero chance GOP opps don't know about it; the fact they haven't used it yet does scare me a bit.
No chance that we get an open contest now if Biden steps aside. It's him or Harris as a practical matter, so all of the above would have to be weighed carefully against Biden's own weakness. Not at all clear who comes out ahead. Ideal thing would be to go back in time and have a primary. So it goes.
But my broader concern is that this conversation is latently freighted with assumptions about demographics and electability that are worth confronting and that will affect other candidates moving forward. Can't confront them if people aren't saying what I think many are thinking.
I would prefer Harris because I think she would be better on Gaza and is obviously healthier, but I don’t know how to replace Biden at this point unless he decides to step down due to health issues. I am going to buy several more bottles of Pepto-Bismol—the one winner in this clusterfuck
He's not getting replaced unless he steps aside. That's not a "should not" that's a cannot. There are no mechanisms to remove him. So unless the Obamas, the Clintons, and his wife all sit him down and tell him to step down I don't see it happening.
