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Everything's complicated and my hesitation about replacing Biden up to now has been informed by polls showing other candidates not doing much better. But a lot of people seem remarkably certain that Harris specifically could not win a general election for reasons I think they should say out loud.

There's a very specific personal vulnerability there that I'm surprised hasn't come up much on the right, but my sense is that doubt here is more about, uh, demographic concerns that haven't really been fleshed out or justified explicitly. Could be wrong.

This is very valid and true, but if the choice is between her a guy who cannot reliably complete sentences without a teleprompter...I dunno, man. bsky.app/profile/lewm...

To be fair, the last time she was in a national election, everyone thought she would be a formidable candidate but she did terribly, and was widely considered a surprisingly poor campaigner. So there is a data point.

Anyway, if Biden stays in, which seems likely, I don't think telling people "no, he's fine, actually" for the next several months is tenable. I don't know what you say instead. But openly lying to voters over and over again about something they know to be untrue probably hurts Dems long-term. So.

This is what the numbers have looked like for ages. Again, not especially promising for anyone. The question is whether anyone else would be more likely to gain ground between now and November. bsky.app/profile/perr...

Interesting. www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2024/6/...

Laying my cards on the table: I think a black woman can definitely win and also that Harris is weak. She's tied to the Biden record and a mediocre campaigner; the Willie Brown thing is genuinely messy. Zero chance GOP opps don't know about it; the fact they haven't used it yet does scare me a bit.

No chance that we get an open contest now if Biden steps aside. It's him or Harris as a practical matter, so all of the above would have to be weighed carefully against Biden's own weakness. Not at all clear who comes out ahead. Ideal thing would be to go back in time and have a primary. So it goes.

But my broader concern is that this conversation is latently freighted with assumptions about demographics and electability that are worth confronting and that will affect other candidates moving forward. Can't confront them if people aren't saying what I think many are thinking.

I would prefer Harris because I think she would be better on Gaza and is obviously healthier, but I don’t know how to replace Biden at this point unless he decides to step down due to health issues. I am going to buy several more bottles of Pepto-Bismol—the one winner in this clusterfuck

No sarcasm: I’d love to think Harris would be better on Gaza; but can you point to something that makes you think so? I’d like to be convinced

Let me look and get back to you—someone mentioned that her remarks were more positive regarding Palestinians.

While some of this is just White House spin, she does seem more sympathetic www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_nx...

Kamala Harris calls for immediate ceasefire in Gazawww.youtube.com YouTube video by Guardian News

This is Politico so… www.politico.com/news/2024/03...

Harris finds herself, often, a half step further than Biden on Israelwww.politico.com The administration says there’s no daylight between her and the president’s Israel stances.

It could me more of the Dems in disarray reporting but several outlets note seemingly a difference www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024...

Harris is reaching Democrats where Biden isn’t – on abortion and Gazawww.theguardian.com As 2024 campaign begins, US vice-president’s gender and race are strengths in fight to retain young voters and voters of color

They do work together on the campaign so, there's no difference

Okay, I’ll need to really dig into this

Yeah I believe there is enough evidence out there to suggest that she would have a different policy position on this genocide. On that alone I am pro-Harris. I am desperate to see something change in Gaza and both Trump and Biden are dedicated to seeing the genocide through.

I suspect some of this would change if she were first on the ticket. In other words, having Harris say some of these things might have been a way for the Biden administration to attempt to pacify left wing critics while changing something substantial about their policy.

*nothing substantial

I appreciate it!

Less baked in racism due to being a minority from a later generation would be my hope

FWIW I think there's a greater than 40% chance that Harris ends up President even if Biden runs and wins. Which is also why the age thing doesn't concern me that much. This isn't like a McCain/Palin thing where it's "If this old guy dies we have a lunatic in charge." She's perfectly capable!

He's not getting replaced unless he steps aside. That's not a "should not" that's a cannot. There are no mechanisms to remove him. So unless the Obamas, the Clintons, and his wife all sit him down and tell him to step down I don't see it happening.