Heard a Democratic member of Congress on cable news counter the dire polling data by pointing out how loud a Wisconsin crowd had cheered at a recent Biden rally.
Maybe replacing him now would be worse. I don't know. But it does feel like his defenders aren't grasping the extent of the problem.
I feel like too many people on here are not facing the facts about the extremely desperate and dismal electoral situation Biden is in.
If you just take the states where Trump is up MORE THAN THREE POINTS in the polling average (a massive lead), he's already got the Electoral College locked.
Assuming all the arguments for replacing him are true, they still run up against the problem of being impracticable without Biden's assent. So, if he continues his refusal to step aside, how long will critics continue the full-court pressure campaign? To the convention? To November?
Completely valid point! As others have pointed out, of all the bad options, a few prominent Democrats coming forward each day to call for him to step down is pretty much the worst possible way to handle this.
So naturally that's what they're doing.
I think his two best options are (a) stay in the race to the end, or (b) resign the Presidency immediately so Kamala gets the benefits of campaigning as the sitting President. Any middle ground seems like slow death. But maybe the party professionals know better than I do...
It's not clearly a great idea even if he does that. You'd have to assume everyone agrees on the new candidate.
The incumbent benefit comes from familiarity. Having Harris as POTUS for a few months, especially as a result of this wacky plot, is not going to duplicate a normal reelection.
With due respect, what are you even talking about? Online discourse aside, the antiBiden faction is largely the big money donors and conservadems who hated Bernie in both of the last election cycles.
You are erroneously assuming my wariness about the current putsch is based on conservatism, since your stated position is to keep fighting "until you admit they were right."
That's like arguing Biden has more people at his boat parades.
Honestly, the answer is to go not dirty, but hard. Do a Stormy Daniels ad, run it for a week, and see what happens to numbers.
That would work on me, I just have this hunch that not for his base, but for suburban people, being reminded he is gross would move more. But they could do both!
Cut them side by side so you see Trump praising them when he hired them (since he only hired the very best people) followed by them saying he’s unfit for office. Run that shit on loop and buy up every possible ad space
And another on the appointees who Trump now attacks, and a third on the ones who were convicted of crimes and/or disbarred. That's everyone except Mnuchen
It isn't about "defending Biden' - it's about understanding that pushing your current POTUS nominee off the ballot, going through a divisive process of selecting new candidate, getting that person on all ballots, and persuading low-info voters to embrace new nominee in 4 months is suicidal.
The better way to counteract these topilines is to point out that:
- Biden's gaining
- RFK isn't gonna pull 8% so take some of this with a grain of salt
- Biden is winning among the demographics most likely to show up and vote (people who voted in 2020, age 65+, suburban women) & Trump has no GOTV
Trump is nominally ahead, yes. But when you look outside his base supporters, the people he's winning with are people that, historically speaking, need a disciplined, massive, organized GOTV effort to get to show up on election day. And the GOP doesn't have that.
Was the problem the same before the debate or is this new? To my awareness the problem was the same. Why are the bringing this up now instead of before the primary? This just makes Democrats look weak, panicky, and reactive, constantly on the defense.
Which is surprising! Because it's not as though there are immensely influential mass media, including revered "liberal MSM" institutions like the Amazon Post and the Nepo Baby Times, devoted to creating exactly that impression.
the polls looked like this before the debate. some polls actually moved TOWARDS Biden after the debate
there is a movement to replace Biden, not because they want Trump to lose, but because they want Trump to win
It’s basically a coinflip no matter who the nominee is. I’m glad at least one elected official isn’t actively crying about their duly elected presumptive nominee on TV.
I don’t disagree with this, but given where we are now I think the only relevant question is “is Harris likely to outperform Biden in November?” If yes, Biden needs to withdraw yesterday; if not, he needs to stay in and the Democratic Party freaking Weekend-at-Bernies it if they have to. :/
Maybe Biden has all his faculties. Maybe he just has short periods where he looks real bad but he's clearly doing fine all the rest of the time. We just don't know. Only Biden's inner circle knows and after that debate none of us trust them.
And one more "event" like the debate will probably doom him.
It's an interesting conundrum. We may be in a position where if nothing else happens he's the best chance to beat Trump but if he has another "who am I, why am I here" moment he's toast.
Makes the replace or not calc even harder.
Dems can be the party who listened to voters saying “none of the above” and have four months to rally around a VP riding a new wave of vibes & attention. I don’t see disaster, I see relief.
the idea that Dems would "rally around" the new candidate instead of dissolving in factionalism is absolute fan fiction and i do not understand how anyone would gamble the republic on that happening
Polls show a generic "younger democrat" ahead of Biden and beating Trump, as well as Harris ahead of Biden. Why, exactly, wouldn't Democrats rally around her if Biden passed the torch to her?
She's part of the ticket. The purpose of VP is to step up when the President can't.
imaginary candidates poll really well. real candidates poll less well, because they have baggage (like, for instance, the perception that the process was rigged to anoint Harris without a primary)
You want Harris just say you want Harris over Biden. Then, work the angle after re-electing Biden to have him step down and Harris step up. To see Dems come together in 4 months is fantasy and would never happen. Right now we are stuck with Biden v. Trump. We have to vote Biden or else get Trump.
well, they'll never SAY which candidate they want to replace Biden, because as long as they don't say who, they can pretend they're replacing Biden with The Generic Democrat Who Everybody Likes And Also Shares All Of My Political Opinions when, of course, that candidate doesn't exist
Exactly I have never heard a who they would replace and a how to replace them plan. also many states have ballots already locked into what they will look like due to primaries being over. To change them takes leg. action. DNC board has to vote to change its rules, I don't see that happening either.
Who is the “they?” Myself, countless others, pundits are mostly in “pass the torch to Harris” camp.
I do think elected Reps who ask Biden to exit should indeed start saying “for Harris” as well.
How are you going to get 18 States to call in their leg. after they disbanned to redo ballots?How are you going to get many of the anti-AG band to be willing to vote her in? How are you going to get donors and PACs that have little love to open wallets? How are you combating misogyny in voters?
"they", in this context, are the center-right mainstream media outlets banging the drums for Biden to drop out (because that would make for a great horse-race story, and, hey, if it helps Republicans win in November, that's just gravy)
Until August, we aren't stuck with Biden. Hence the ongoing discussion & persuasion campaign. He can step down!
Why, exactly, wouldn't Democrats come together? They voted for the Biden-Harris ticket. Current Biden voters will walk over coals to defeat Trump. They will vote for Harris too!
Who would you have instead? How would you get the ground game again, the money raised, the door to door discussions that have been going on for months in some areas? It is easy to break a thing but hard to build it. Just admit if Biden gets elected you want the 25th amendment implemented. 1/2
