post malone ergo propter malone: I love it. NC is one of two swing states, along with GA, that don’t have a Senate election and their gubernatorial candidate is a trainwreck. Any real campaign org there has to come from Trump

I love it. NC is one of two swing states, along with GA, that don’t have a Senate election and their gubernatorial candidate is a trainwreck. Any real campaign org there has to come from Trump

Looks like the Biden campaign is really going to make a play for North Carolina 🤔 Internal polling in the Blue Wall must be better than advertised, because otherwise this doesn't make much sense to me www.heraldsun.com/news/politic...

if your thesis is that low turnout is good for Biden, NC has really attractive qualities

they also gerrymandered their house districts to hell and gone. If you’re a marginal R NC voter, you’d be going to the polls for Trump, Robinson, and a rep you’ve perhaps never voted for before who didn’t run a meaningful GE campaign because their district is R+11

meanwhile a small army of very nice old ladies are sharpening their brooches and re-pluming their church hats. Bubba’s not showing up for this one but Auntie is.

🤞🤞. In other news, they're running ads here that include clips of Mark Robinson saying "your body is not your own" when you are pregnant

we all embrace @sarahtaber.bsky.social thought

Wait, I thought the idea with gerrymandering was to pack opponents into minimal super-safe districts and spread supporters efficiently? Relentless pursuit of efficiency always reaches tradeoffs vs. resilience: a little turnout swing can drive a lot of district flips, that way.

correct, but what a fresh gerrymander means is that there is exactly one NC house district that Cook currently thinks is at all competitive

this is bad news for the House but it’s also bad news for voter turnout in NC

And it’s funny because this is the one congressional district that encompasses the Black Belt, so if Davis can help juice Black turnout in a district that would otherwise potentially have low turnout, that's good for Biden and Stein.

there's packing but there's also cracking

Gotta be in the first 10 lines of "hey kids, do you want to understand politics"

Ah, right: makes sense the latter would be more fashionable in the Carolinas

This is exactly the thing...no matter what their internal polling says, dems have to win by 10 points or so to prevail.

to win house seats, yes. not for statewides

the road to power runs through the state agriculture commissioner's office

Defeating a Republican supermajority in NC is also worthwhile in its own right. Hitting them while they're softened by a weak gov candidate could have cascading benefits

I don't talk about it, but the fact that Uncle Ruckus might be my next governor really is pants-fillingly terrifying to me.

I don’t want to sound patronizing but get everyone you know to go vote against him and his party

Biden needs more pathways and Trump’s math is difficult without being able to rely on NC, it seems like a reasonable swing to take

And just forcing a ground game in places that the Republicans don’t have the apparatus to compete feels like a good strategy for the next however many years, too

Also, it’s still early, things might look very different in a few months. If you want to expand your effort to more places, better to have some groundwork already laid.

NC was Trump +1.3 in 2020, WI was Biden +0.6, and they are demographically different, NC could easily end up as the tipping point

@proptermalone.bsky.social is even being generous with how awful the GOP's pick for governor is. The man is so dumb and so loudly dumb undervotes seem extremely plausible.

This sort of deep strategic thinking about election tactics is forbidden on microblogging, post

Wondering how we feel about Sarah Taber's chances then.....

I don’t know the race but I think statewide it’s going to be a good year for Dems

She's running for ag commissioner or something that my Texas-steeped brain remembers as 'ag commissioner'

The main thing here is there's no other obvious choice except Texas, which is too expensive. Realistically they should plan on spending money in Minnesota and Virginia.

Taking another crack at Florida but I don't think Trump would fall for that one.

TX and FL have senate campaigns, they’re going to be contested anyway

If we're at risk of losing MN and VA, we've already lost.

If Trump is spending money there and Biden isn't, you could end up in weird situations where he wins one of those even if Biden wins MI/VA/PA. Though Biden will be spending *some* money in MN anyway.

Biden has so much money banked, all he needs is manpower in state. If Dems have the weekends free, why not?

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