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It’s maddening to see skepticism of ejecting Biden treated like cultish loyalty. Some of us have been out here saying Biden’s too old for years. The problem is that what is being proposed is a shocking, almost unheard-of remedy, and every historic precedent tells us it’ll end in catastrophe.
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It’s very, very clear that the loudest voices calling most excitedly for this remedy are not especially politically sophisticated or even worried about Biden losing - that’s why they didn’t freak for the months of lagging polls and why they’re doing nonsense fantasy-draft replacement picks.
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I think it’s pretty clear that the worst-case scenario for a lot of them is President Harris
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So it's really weird that they're taking this course of action when she's the most realistic alternative is Biden steps down. They aren't smart!
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well, that wasn’t how the NYT framed it, mostly
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dog caught the car
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I guess I'm a weird case because I do think there's a strong case to make that Harris is the better car. But people who say their only concern is beating Donald Trump haven't made that case and have instead made arguments that would be *fatal.*
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at this point I’m willing to believe Harris might be a better candidate but you do kinda have to add a grain of salt to account for the negative campaigning that right now is mostly not happening against her
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like, I don’t think it’s at all a clear case and the costs of switching cars are plausibly very high
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It really rests on what you think Biden's actual capabilities are, something none of us really know, but which people who know him haven't (IMO) been able to really reassure us of. Tomorrow's interview will be interesting.
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did you listen to the radio one that dropped this morning by chance?
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I did. I thought he did well. I think he really does thrive in informal environments like that and should do more of them. The strategy to wall him off hasn't served him.
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You thought it was a convincing campaign speech? The civic media one in WI? Or the Philly one?
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The Wisconsin radio show. It wasn't a stump speech, but it made it clear to me that he's still got the wits to do the job.
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Ok I never thought he was senile and this didn’t change that view. And I’m not a campaign expert. They aren’t really for me. But I found it pretty weak from a campaign POV. He either had mounds of fact cards in front of him or if he didn’t (there’s not way), he’s got an amazing memory but
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He’s severely lacking in discipline, organization and control. He struggled to remember to answer the questions. And rambled mercilessly until he said “anyway, sorry for going on too long”. Again, I strongly suspect someone was telling him this. I’m not critical of stutters, missed words or else.
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these have all been reasonable criticisms of Biden since Nixon was president
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I don’t think “he’s always been like this” is going to stop this
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“He’s always been like this” is an affirmative defense against claims of cognitive deterioration.
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Man I love him but he is way off his peak. Contrast with his destruction of Paul Ryan in 2012. But you’re right that it’s not cognitive deterioration. His cognition is fine but it’s harder for him to express himself and it looks bad.
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he is absolutely much worse at this overall than he used to be, no question about that. the level of digression is pretty similar though
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I suspect his physical appearance is hurting him more than anything.
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Yeah, that and speech pattern. If a campaign is all about presenting yourself to voters, that’s the problem. It’s really hard for him to present himself the way he used to be able to.
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Pre-debate I was prepared to argue and did that we should be pushing through physical appearance and speech pattern. I listen to him now and give as much generosity to these things as I can. I am not convinced that everything is ok.
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Americans see the President as a reflection of themselves. A frail old man with parsing steps and a stutter triggers some primal insecurities.
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Yeah, that's my strongest argument for him to step aside. It's not that he can't make important decisions in a briefing, but that he doesn't project the confidence that he can. And Americans want to feel assured.
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I’d be interested in what an expert or a panel of black voters thought of eg that interview. Is it doing the job of the campaign? Is the job giving face-time? Showing you are aggressive? Being compelling? Etc? Was it effective in these things? I’ve never spent much time worrying about the
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Nitty gritty of political comms. As it is not for me. And I don’t care; if this is effective. If this is sufficient let’s go. For me, it’s not impressive (as compared to Sanders, or others). If we’re going with Biden, then fine but I think you need to have a much stronger, and wider campaign
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Of effective surrogates. Including Harris. And the governors and more. I wish I could retreat to not thinking about this stuff at all. That’s where I was pre-debate.
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Even at his peak I didn’t care much for him. He’s just not an inspiring figure. He barely beat Trump last election. He may have brought the country back from the brink, but he is unable to communicate that achievement to voters.