Still stuck in a holding pattern. This one, from one of the pollsters that finds a higher number of Conservatives, shows them at best becalmed.
FWIW this poll's findings mirror my mental image of the par vote shares at the next election. (There's no particular reason why I'd be right, of course.)
I'm 3/4 of the way through writing something on this but... fundimentally I see no reason for the polling to change until the election is called. Think it'll be a 20% lead holding pattern till then
After the range of reasons we've had them this Parliament (from "fuck this shit I am out" to "actual paedophile" to "tractor guy") I refuse to rule anything out on that front.
Also this is the first parliament we've had defections that are, whether you are cynical about their motives or not, defections that are very much 'I am going to damage Sunak on the way out', can't rule out an MP in LD facing territory going 'eh, I can't stand him' and quitting either.
He's got so many more chances to annoy them as well! A defection might have a smaller impact on the polls for the LDs than a by-election, but any chance to remind voters they exist surely isn't bad for them.
Yeah - and I think frankly either is an option we can't rule out, not least as the 'what is the maximum way to cause damage?' calculation is different for different MPs. (i.e. ironically, Chris Skidmore, a much more moderate Tory MP, choosing to quit parliament early in Labour facing territory)
Pretty much everywhere has been selected for so while not impossible, it's not that likely, not least as the other variable is 'people who Labour MPs and the local party would vouch for' is another dynamic.
Skidmore could have taken the Wakeford route and in many ways it would be the same trajectory (sole Tory vote on Labour motions on an issue they really care about becomes Labour MP) and I think could have had a seat found for him given that.
Might be worth thinking about the situations that might move the polling. In no particular order: the economy feels better; Rwanda is a ‘success’; Farage leads the Reform campaign; the election campaign itself. I can’t imagine the net sum of these being better than neutral to negative for the Cons.
You need to consider what situations might make some of the political story about Labour rather than the Conservatives.
The Tories' best hope is that Labour become shopsoiled in some way.
In related news good to see Stephen’s newsletter today re the looming university disaster. Not sure people realise how big a decent sized university is these days - say 20k students and 5k staff. Obviously devastating for all concerns including the local community with huge news value.
Re Unis: Portsmouth Uni being a 20k student population, under the cosh and is integral to the city's economy - especially the proposed regeneration of the city centre area. Braverman (Fham/Waterlooville) likens it to a "visa mill" and criticises whilst Penny Mordaunt next door In Portsmouth North.
..is fighting for her political life in a constituency which will be affected by the Uni downsizing (there are proposals for a medical school with the QA hospital etc).
Do they talk to each other?
Another note in regards to Portsmouth North - the Labour candidate for the seat failed to win the seat in Cosham at the UA elections (with Labour holding the 2 other seats in a 3 member ward). She was beaten by the Portsmouth Independents..
Whose leader George Madgwick (a Councillor in Paulsgrove) is threatening to stand in the Portsmouth North seat at the general. Which will make Mordaunt's life...interesting...and not in a good way.. l
Rumination over.
As ever, the thing that gets me is the sheer stupidity of it all. If you want to reduce student migration then why not address the root of the problem - the university funding crisis.
