Prediction: Trump will argue that his NY conviction must be overturned because the court admitted evidence of conversations he had with his staff while President in order to prove knowledge and intent. He will argue those conversations were “official acts.” Judge Merchan and higher NY courts …./1
/2 ….will reject the argument based on finding that those conversations were not official acts and that including it was harmless error.
Trump will appeal from NY’s highest court to SCOTUS.
/3 5 or 6 SCOTUS judges, who normally love harmless error like a 15-year-old-boy loves a tube sock, will find that it doesn’t apply to introduction of evidence of Presidentially-immune acts, and that the NY court didn’t analyze official acts doctrine right and remand for more proceedings.
Judge Juan Merchan moved sentencing to September 18 which means that Trump won't be able to appeal to SCOTUS before Election Day
So, he'll have to run as a convicted felon
At this point, I'm just hoping Merchan will remand him and not stay execution of the sentence pending appeal, because we might as well get some prison time before SCOTUS hops in
He has to go through the 2nd Circuit Appeal Court, and then to SCOTUS. Supervising Justice for 2nd Circuit is Sonia Sotomayor. Which means Trump won't be able to line jump
That's why September 18th won't give him the time to appeal to SCOTUS
Trump : SCOTUS, WHAT ARE THEY DOING TO MEEEEE !
SCOTUS : We're coming Doney Honey ! There, there, everything will be fine. You will be o-kay. We will take care of the bad people who try to hurt you're feelings.
Obviously, we are in uncharted territory, but what do you think are the chances of SCOTUS just announcing that the conviction is overturned? How much more brazen/ridiculous would that be than what they’ve already done?
And what are the odds of that happening?
(For those in the audience who need to be told this, and I know you exist, that was what we of Earth call "sarcasm".)
It would literally have to go to NY appeals court and eventually NY Supreme Court. And people simply do not seem to understand this. Not to mention this is literally a state case, Not that SCOTUS fucking wouldn't love to get involved, but that's kind of an open question at this point.
Like Trump vs United States, it has to have the veneer of being inside the law
As @kenwhite.bsky.social points out, it may be NY Appeal Court, 2nd Circuit Appeal Court and then to Sonia Sotomayor who is the supervising justice for the 2nd Circuit. Only then does Roberts get a chance at it
Watching "Roy Cohn" scream himself ineffectually to death in a hospital bed in "Angels in America" is a true pleasure, every time.
Hm, might be time for a re-watch.
i’ll be honest, i’m really trying to find the outcome we avoid by not using scotus precident to put trump and anyone who signed that precident into law into the “dies” column sooner rather.
Because once you cross that Rubicon, it doesn't stop.
Torture doesn't help armies win wars. Neither do war crimes. This is a similar bright line you *do not cross* on its own merits.
One, Trump already crossed the Rubicon on January 6. Gov't held just enough to push him back. Unfortunately, SCOTUS just said, he could have gone farther.
Two, if the Dems cross it to "stop" Trump, then extremism wins anyway. You cannot fix a wrong by committing another wrong. Laws should matter.
You left out the part where all this happens before sentencing b/c Trump asks for a stay of proceedings & keeps appealing the denial of a stay until SCOTUS grants one and sets briefing on the merits for "not earlier than the next time a Canadian team wins the Stanley Cup."
