Popehat: Prediction: Trump will argue that his NY conviction must be overturned because the court admitted evidence of conversations he had with his staff while President in order to prove knowledge and intent. He will argue those conversations were “official acts.” Judge Merchan and higher NY courts …./1

Prediction: Trump will argue that his NY conviction must be overturned because the court admitted evidence of conversations he had with his staff while President in order to prove knowledge and intent. He will argue those conversations were “official acts.” Judge Merchan and higher NY courts …./1

/2 ….will reject the argument based on finding that those conversations were not official acts and that including it was harmless error. Trump will appeal from NY’s highest court to SCOTUS.

/3 5 or 6 SCOTUS judges, who normally love harmless error like a 15-year-old-boy loves a tube sock, will find that it doesn’t apply to introduction of evidence of Presidentially-immune acts, and that the NY court didn’t analyze official acts doctrine right and remand for more proceedings.

Exactly. Roberts put in a poison pill that means that the result of the trial will eventually be overturned by SCOTUS on appeal

If it's Trump. If it's Biden, it will stand.

Judge Juan Merchan moved sentencing to September 18 which means that Trump won't be able to appeal to SCOTUS before Election Day So, he'll have to run as a convicted felon

He wouldn’t be able to appeal directly to SCOTUS anyway. I mean, unless SCOTUS were willing to ignore all procedural rules and norms or something.

Wow!

Chess move. Ahead of the game. But not checkmate...

Unless Merchan decides that the 'official acts' monkey wrench is sufficient to toss out the verdict.

what gives you confidence that the whole thing won’t be thrown out?

Sounds like Trump has finally found his Roy Cohn. Six of them, to be exact.

Roy Cohn was literally Trump's Roy Cohn.

Yes, but then he died. Sad.

A pity that he never came to grips with the internal demons that drove his awful career and ultimately led to him dying alone and friendless.

I really hate that you have already gamed this out, and I hate it more that it seems entirely plausible.

The entire Fedsoc-fed judiciary is now focused on one purpose: dragging out Trump's trials until he can either pardon himself or dies.

i’ll be honest, i’m really trying to find the outcome we avoid by not using scotus precident to put trump and anyone who signed that precident into law into the “dies” column sooner rather.

Because once you cross that Rubicon, it doesn't stop. Torture doesn't help armies win wars. Neither do war crimes. This is a similar bright line you *do not cross* on its own merits.

Trump is explicitly saying he's going to cross that Rubicon as soon as he's back in.

You left out the part where all this happens before sentencing b/c Trump asks for a stay of proceedings & keeps appealing the denial of a stay until SCOTUS grants one and sets briefing on the merits for "not earlier than the next time a Canadian team wins the Stanley Cup."

They'll finally have a defendant they want to give some post-conviction relief to

in that context post-conviction relief really sounds like a sex act

Grim but accurate

the old two-step; invent a doctrine, don't elaborate, and then revel in the chaos it brings and interpret favorably when favorable appellants reach the Court.

There is no reason not to assume they aren’t totally in the bag for him at this point until they demonstrate otherwise.

I’m not looking forward to day in late December when they have to decide who’s votes to count and who’s to discard.

SCOTUS inserting themselves on a decided state-law matter retroactively, despite loving finality of state court judgments and hating retroactivity, is exactly why they’re gonna interfere here.

Any chance that New York pulls an Andrew Jackson? "I see they've made their decision. Now let them enforce it."

Governor Congestion Pricing? Good luck with that

Zero. They'll lash faith in the system to the mast of the Hesperus and act shocked in the morning.

No, but that would be something to witness.

We did have a federal court ruling of precisely the type demanded by Trump v US, on the official/unofficial nature of these acts, in Trump’s removal motion. But the decision wasn’t rendered *in light of Trump v. US.* So, uh… abracadabra, NY loses.

hahaaaaa everything sucks so fuckin’ hard.

If only you were joking

So the trick is to make sure there are 21 justices by then.

But, her emails...

still undefeated

I know it's v annoying & corrosive & makes me a Doomer, but my basic premise re: donald trump's legal travails is that conservative judges want him to avoid consequences, & so therefore they will invent ways for him to avoid consequences. "there's no way out for him this time" lol pull the other one

Lmao @chrislhayes.bsky.social just said this exact phrase (not the sock part) right as I was reading it

The goal was to delay the sentencing. The judge wrote "to September 18, 2024 at 10:00 AM, for the imposition of sentence, if such is still necessary." So it could be more delays for other proceeding.

Doesn't the "no evidence of motive" figure into this as well? Trump could have outright said "I'm trying to influence the election" and it's inadmissible if it's an "official act"? How does the motive evidentiary exclusion affect prosecution of crimes with a mens rea requirement?

Goddammit

Sadly, likely true.

just hoping no one enters the tube sock as evidence

All use 'common' folk hear is Trump and his wealthy fellow travelers are using the system to avoid paying for their sins. AKA the system is rigged. Thank you Supreme Court.

I’m a few years past cramming for the SAT- is that a metaphor or a simile?

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