Daniel Gilmore: that son of a bitch Macron might win this insane gamble after all

Meanwhile in France, polling models that take account of the dropouts post-first round suggest a completely different result than the as many as 300 RN seats that were predicted after the first round. Huge. *FRANCE'S LE PEN GROUP WOULD GET 190-220 SEATS: BFM CITES HARRIS

that son of a bitch Macron might win this insane gamble after all

I think he'll lose the gamble but the left and France will win it

Macron after a united Left front succeeds in blocking Le Pens party from a majority

Macron is exceptional at freezing French politics in place. A crappy place, but the man plays defense well.

part of this is structural, real Mitterrand hours

Quite funny watching everyone get this completely wrong.

That's true. But it's also a reminder that public opinion and politics don't sit still for as long as anyone would like.

I'm not sure this counts as a win? It's more like he played Russian Roulette and lost but the doctors might still save him

I don't really know how the the semi-presidential system works but it's very hard to do a cordon sanitaire around a party that holds 40% of the seats

well first off you're citing a different seat estimate which is much higher than the one I did lol

Your low estimate still puts them at like 33% - his working majority would have to include NUPES and LR at the same time somehow

In some sense this seems like the worse case scenario - the legislature is completely paralyzed, and RN don't even get any of the blame for 2027 because they're not in government

sorry I guess they're NFP this time around, not NUPES, the French system of changing their alliance names every cycle is a bit tedious

I had read somewhere that RNs plan was to decline governance if they only came up with a plurality bc they wanted outright majority or nothing. Who knows if that’s the case or if it holds. I have the knowledge level of French politics as most Americans: mostly nothing lol 🤷🏻‍♂️

fair enough, as I said I'm not even sure how government formation works under their system

Left will split up after election, was just an electoral pact & no love lost. I did estimate (based on 5% of seats led by each party in R1) and PS & either LR or Greens would've been enough along with centre for majority. Small sample, hadn't time to manually do 577, but far from implausible

“Won” merely in the sense of Le Pens party not getting a majority I guess

Lot of that going around lately.

This is the projection. It basically shows Ensemble losing ~100 seats, the RN gaining ~100 seats, and both the NFP and LR standing ~still. Ensemble + LR was a majority in the last assembly, and won't be here.

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