Alex Coppock

@aecoppock.bsky.social

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Associate Professor (on term) of Political Science at Yale University
alexandercoppock.com
Persuasion in Parallel: https://alexandercoppock.com/coppock_2023.html
Research Design: Declaration, Diagnosis, and Redesign: book.declaredesign.org

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This post resonates with my view that all we ever really learn about is the ITT and we should be grateful we ever even learn about the ITT in the first place

If an effect falls in a forest and no one is there to determine the mechanism, is it even causal? New post in which I try to clarify some things--claims about causal effects are indifferent to mechanisms; heterogeneity does not invalidate average estimates. www.the100.ci/2024/06/26/s...

Sometimes a causal effect is just a causal effect (regardless of how it’s mediated or moderated)www.the100.ci TL;DR: Tell your students about the potential outcomes framework. It will have (heterogeneous) causal effects on their understanding of causality (mediated through unknown pathways), I promise. It’...

Tim Gill has moved on from trolling academics to trolling... Phish?

Thank you Eric, thank you Margit and Josh for this huge honor. I'm grateful to the committee and to everyone who helped me make PiP - esp. those whose work I replicated or reanalyzed. See you in Philly for APSA2024 -- here's a throwback to APSA2023 for the author-meets-critics alternative for PiP

Congratulations to @aecoppock.bsky.social whose book, “Persuasion in Parallel,” has won the Robert E. Lane Best Book Award from the APSA Political Psychology Section! Thanks to Margit Tavits and Josh Gubler for serving on the committee.

alexandercoppock.com

+1 to the main takeaway from this post that pilots are great for reasoning about your eventual standard error, less great for learning about the treatment effect. Complements this chapter nicely: book.declaredesign.org/lifecycle/pl... And I couldn't resist rewriting these loops in DeclareDesign:

New Post! 🥳 "Power Analysis Using Pilot Data: Simulations to Illustrate" In this post, I discuss how you can use pilot data to predict the statistical power in a planned study. #polisky #stats #metasci www.carlislerainey.c...#polisky #stats #metasci www.carlislerainey.c...

Carlisle Rainey - Statistical Power from Pilot Data: Simulations to Illustratewww.carlislerainey.com In this post, I discuss how pilot data can be used to predict the standard error in a planned study.

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Make me king for a day and I swear to all that is holy, I'll require that anyone attempting to field a "support more/support as much/support less" question will be required to spend fifteen goddamn minutes googling "response substitution." Such a huge whiff.

When I'm doing meta-analysis work, I ask a lot of people for their replication datasets. Good news is that norms appear to have really shifted -- for one project: 2 "let me get back to you" 2 "data unavailable" 8 data shared 4 left on read 50% is progress! {please post your data, TY!}

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"... people are not good at articulating the reasons for their choices. So they may say – and honestly feel! – that an issue is important. But when they say that, they are not revealing that this issue will affect how they vote."

What voters say is important doesn’t actually affect their votegoodauthority.org Pollsters have ways to ask voters what issues are most important. But identifying what actually matters at the ballot box isn't that simple.

Not to be glib -- I 100% agree that academic incentives push scholars away from correcting others' work -- but I do think @steveharoz.com's efforts here could legitimately be a CV line under "disciplinary service"

This work was a huge time sink with nothing to add to my CV. Imagine if I was chasing tenure or a new academic job? Here is yet another reason why erroneous scientific publications won't get corrected: None of the effort can be used for career advancement. #SciComment #ScientificPublishing

Here's a nice new paper from the fully blueskyless author team of Philip Moniz, Rodrigo Ramirez-Perez, Erin Hartman, and Stephen Jessee, showing that survey exp. effects are similar for "eager" and "reluctant" respondents, with positive implications for generalizability doi.org/10.1017/pan....

dark

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Today's @mattyglesias.bsky.social newsletter focuses on my book, The Invented State: Policy Misperceptions in the American Public. www.slowboring.com/p/the-misinf...

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My experiments seminar at @dartmouthartsci.bsky.social in the student newspaper - amazed, as always, at how wonderful my students are and how much we can do together www.thedartmouth.com/article/2024...

Methods and Misperceptions: Spotlight on GOVT 83.21www.thedartmouth.com One writer looks at the government class “Experiments in Politics,” in which students design and publish an experimental study about political misperceptions.

This op-ed by @ryanenos.bsky.social makes the case that universities should practice "forbearance" when it comes to responding to student protesters who are breaking some university policies when protesting peacefully. www.thecrimson.com/article/2024...

I missed this piece last month -- political science experimentalists especially should give it a read!

Hal Malchow Is Going to Die on Thursday. He Has One Last Message for Democrats.www.politico.com The pioneering Democratic consultant has been planning his death for decades.

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The childcare reimbursement form for @APSAtweets 2024 conference in Philly is now open! It is due by August 2nd. It covers $500 of expenses, which can include a Philly based provider OR travel costs for a non-guardian caregiver connect.apsanet.org/apsa2024/chi...

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Reply to

Julia M. Rohrer

I’m also coming down more and more on the side of “no, causal over-claiming cannot be blamed on journalists.” Sometimes, they may be the source of misinterpretations. But often, the articles themselves are carefully crafted to imply causality while maintaining plausible deniability.

unsolicited advice: do not group reviewer comments together then provide a summary response -- go through each reviewer's points point-by-point. Otherwise it's too easy to mischaracterize what a reviewer was getting at or worse, to skip responding to some comments altogether.

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So excited this is finally out and that a UCD colleague and I could contribute! For anyone interested, here is a link to our replication’s discussion paper, published last June: ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/i4rdps...

Our first meta paper is out!! This paper combines our first 110 completed reproductions/replications. This is joint work with 350+ amazing coauthors. We summarize our findings below: econpapers.repec.org/paper/zbwi4r...

My contribution to this exciting initiative was an "almost entirely successful" robustness replication of López-Moctezuma, Wantchekon, Rubenson, @thomasfujiwara.bsky.social, and Pe Lero (AJPS 2022). Thanks to @i4replication.bsky.social for their incredible efforts!

Browsing Josh Knobe's website to discover a section on responses to his work... Don't believe I've seen a political scientist's website do anything like this! @xphilosopher.bsky.social

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Hi Folks: Firing up this account for the first time to note that today marks one year since the Russian government detained my colleague Evan Gershkovic in an act of supreme cynicism and cowardice. WSJ’s response is this stunning front page. #FreeEvan

Furiously making appendix figures for #MPSA2024 over here. ...for a study with @ethanvporter.bsky.social and Don Green, we did a warmup exercise in which we asked subjects to guess the partisanship of characters from The Office. could not resisting posting

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The econ paper that found a 42-64% increase in rapes after prostitution banned (in Sweden)? Turns out result from coding error + Stata prioritization rues + seasonality. * always plot raw data * always sniff test your estimates * open science works! On X or here: drive.google.com/file/d/1oGP3...

Re-analysis of Ciacci (2024).pdfdrive.google.com

Would love thoughts from survey researchers and REP scholars about the measurement properties of this new question. To my mind it addresses the persistent MENA mismeasurement and has consistent race/ethnicity then national origin structure across groups Should we update AmPol surveys to this Q?

BREAKING: The #2030Census and federal surveys are getting new checkboxes for “Middle Eastern or North African” and “Hispanic or Latino” after the White House’s OMB approved the first changes to U.S. government standards on racial and ethnic data since 1997 www.npr.org/2024/03/09/1...

Among other reasons, mediation is hard to study because with treatment Z randomly assigned outcome Y measured without error putative mediator M measured without error and heterogeneity U unobserved, we can't distinguish between models A, B, and C

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Episode 92! Andy Guess joins to talk about a massive project in collaboration with Meta looking at the role social media plays in people's engagement with politics. Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/9... Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/3Zux... Web: opinionsciencepodcast.com/episode/can-...

Friends, we're extending the deadline for the PB 2023 best article until April 10. PLEASE NOTE, eligible papers are those published in Vol 45 of the journal only (it's a little confusing, because most of those papers were published online first well before 2023!) nominate yourself and others!

Did you publish an article in Political Behavior in calendar year 2023? Was it the *best* article published in PB in calendar year 2023?? Please submit to find out! 😉 I'm on the committee with @jfdaoust.bsky.social and @mzarate.bsky.social. Self-nominations encouraged!

Can anyone in my network recommend a resource that distinguishes non-disclosure of random assignment in a study from genuine deception?

OMG please, but in the meantime, do you know of anything official looking I can send to them that explains in very simple terms that this is not deception?

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📢Now published open access at Political Behavior📢 Using age manipulation software, @yoshiono.bsky.social and I find voters (even older ones) like younger candidates but strongly dislike elderly candidates. Why is this the case? Read our article to find out more: link.springer.com/article/10.1...

🚨 New Paper with Yoshikuni Ono, conditionally accepted at Political Behavior 🎉 Why are elected officials often much older than voters? We use age manipulation software to uncover voters' age biases. Surprise: Voters (even older ones) like young candidates! www.charlesmcclean.com/s/How-Do-Vot...

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once again begging everyone to stop asking "would you be more/less likely to vote for CANDIDATE if THING" questions, which tell you a lot more about pre-existing views of CANDIDATE and THING than anything about how many people would actually change their minds