GOLIKEHELLMACHINE: it's almost like "people who watch the debate in full and talk about it on twitter and bluesky" are not really a very meaningful sample of the electorate

We have our first post-debate poll. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-...

lol, lmao

Like what are we even doing here

it's almost like "people who watch the debate in full and talk about it on twitter and bluesky" are not really a very meaningful sample of the electorate

have you ever typed a politics-related comment on any internet forum congratulations, you are more politically engaged than 90% of the country

a lot of extremely online people really do find this incredibly hard to internalize

Yet another reason I’m glad that I very regularly talk to people who are not extremely online

I’m feeling validated:

I do try to check in with normies via Facebook and the only comments I've seen about the debate are from my very politically active friends and family members (Democratic and Republican) who are doing their partisan best at only focusing on the other guy's worst moments.

The opinions of the not always online are maddening to me but illuminating. I have conversations with people who are both mad about inflation and want to kick all the migrant construction and farm workers out and try to explain having both is near impossible. But that's who decides elections.

It is very helpful

I'm at my sister's house and the TV was on baseball until nine when everyone went to bed (there are kids in the house). Completely ignored the whole thing.

Independents, the people that are still up for grabs, tend to be normies. They won't talk about how Karl Marx changed their life. Or on the flipside why the power of the free market should solve things. Normies don't think a lot about politics on a day to day basis beyond how it affects themselves.

Normies are the people who can get seated on juries because they don’t pay attention to what’s going on in the world. We saw how that went for Trump when you force them to pay attn.

A lot of them - And @chrislhayes.bsky.social has an excellent very old evergreen blog post about this - Do not and are not able to connect the extent to which politics impact their lives at all.

Link to aforementioned blog post: chrishayes.org/articles/dec...

Decision Makers · Chris Hayeschrishayes.org For those who follow politics, there are few things more mysterious, more inscrutable, more maddening than the mind of the undecided voter. In this year's election, when the choice was so stark and the differences between the candidates were so obvious, how could any halfway intelligent human remain undecided for long? "These people," Jonah Goldberg once wrote of undecided voters, on a rare occasion when he probably spoke for the entire political class, "can't make up their minds, in all likelihood, because either they don't care or they don't know anything."

I believe this completely.

"how could anyone possibly not know who they're going to vote for between these two guys at this point" jimmy down at 7-11 saw a campaign poster once while high who he thinks vaguely might have been one of the candidates but honestly he can't remember which one so he might flip a coin

I have met multiple people who have no idea that Trump supporters attacked the Capitol.

I'm sure you don't have an answer, but HOW THE FUCK IS THAT POSSIBLE??

Haven't heard or don't, won't, can't believe it happened and yet...

Jimmy needs to get the fuck back to work so I can get vaguely warm hot dogs.

Entering my local tristate area villain arc.

i'm so glad my chat group is, y'know, *actively doing shit* /i need to stop engaging in some discussions on here tho

I wonder what that world is like.

I still question all these polls. I mean, who the heck is answering these pollster’s phone calls, whose numbers are not automatically blocked because it’s coming from an unknown caller?

they weren’t historically off in 2022, so I’m reluctant to just ignore them, but it does feel like the bottom is gonna fall out at some point all the reputable polling folks who talk about response rate have noted the extent to which it continues to crater

I just remember everyone talking about the Red Wave in 2022, assuming much of that was based in polling data. And, for me personally, I know I didn’t start fully blocking unknown numbers until a couple years ago. Maybe I’m grasping for straws here but it remains a big question mark for me.

The people that answer are people that tend to answer unknown numbers. Older, typically more conservative, usually white.

That’s my assumption, too. But who knows, maybe pollsters are accounting for that in their data. It’s just really hard to be sure.

I've talked with a few on here, and they say they do, but it's REALLY hard to account for it considering how few young people answer. I probably would NOW, but that's because I'm waiting on something to come back and I'm expecting a call from an unknown number.

Trying to explain to my friends that are freaking out over last night that: -Debates historically have a negligible impact on swaying elections -And if someone is an undecided voter at this point, they're probably not the type of person to watch the debates anyway

The real power behind the debates are the sound bites. I'm hoping beyond all hope that the Dems are smart enough to blast "I killed Roe v Wade" on repeat, from now til the election

I am the ten percent!

Probably lowballing it.

You are labeled as a summoner Iirc

I would bet dollars to donuts that most of that 1.2% that migrated from Biden to RFK find their way back before November.

*July probably, as soon as they research him most of these voters are going to realize he's not a 'Kennedy' in the sense they believe.

🛎️🛎️🛎️

At a minimum, people who watch THIS debate

and there were something like 30M fewer of them watching than there were in 2020

Which makes sense! Because there's nothing useful to learn!

The only reason to watch it was if you supported one or other of them and wanted to see the other one fall on their face.

well we were all handsomely rewarded then I guess

The very rare win-win.

*taps sign* bsky.app/profile/esp1...

The people who will decide the election were not watching this debate or the post-debate panels. But they will see those ads and hear Trump being Trump again. That's not going to change the polls next week, but it will matter. Nothing is guaranteed so we all need to do the work. 2/2

Are you trying to tell me that the opinions of people that actually bought tickets and brought friends to see Jello Biafra speak his truth in 1998 aren’t real Americans? Well I won’t stand… now I’m embarrassed.

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