Jonathan Ladd

@jonmladd.bsky.social

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Political Scientist. Assoc Prof in the McCourt School and Dept of Government at Georgetown.

Scholar of public opinion, polling, and media effects.

Also occasionally a Marilynne Robinson stan account.

https://www.jonathanmladd.com/

Posts Replies Media

Getting out of DC and reading some local journalism. Front page story here in Elizabethtown, IL

🙁

He died half way through the third movie before the Empire was defeated. Famously his health didn't allow him to be there and finish the job.

The juxtaposition of these headlines is... unfortunate.

www.threads.net/@gabrielkaha...

Alexander Hamilton, Federalist 69 avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century...

Article 1, Section 3 of the U.S. Constitution. constitution.congress.gov/browse/artic...

Could you show us the actual words in the Constitution that say the president is immune from criminal law?

More of this is needed.

Reply to

Jonathan Ladd

Psych!!!

This isn't a decision we can work around, even though it's very tempting to want to think that. Overturning it will be extremely hard and possibly not completed in our lifetimes, and will require legal but outside the box thinking---like justices strategically retiring early and expanding the court.

via Dave Itzkoff

Reply to

Jonathan Ladd

Biden makes it a bit tougher for Trump to get his low education, low political participation core supporters energized and to the polls. Trump riles up the Dem base. And Trump needs to get his base very riled up about the Dem nominee. abcnews.go.com/538/vote-bac...

I would feel better if those who are supposed to be political experts didn't beclown themselves this way. The choice is: 1) Biden 2) Harris 3) Total chaos / royal rumble, serious risk of coalition crack up. Leading an anti-fascist coalition is very hard. There is no Aaron Sorkin solution here.

This from @davidkurtz.bsky.social is by far the best punditry you'll read about the debate today. talkingpointsmemo.com/morning-memo... With that said, a very small pet peeve from me. These things are in fact arguably the main focus of elections research in modern academic political science.

Reply to

Jonathan Ladd

Example: Most people thought Trump won the debate. Evaluations of the candidates among these people moved barely at all. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-...

Another post debate poll, this one from Morning Consult. It matches the predebate FiveThirtyEight polling average of a tied race.

I'm sorry. But the idea that Biden would withdraw because anyone on this list told him to is laughable. Like it or not, this wouldn't work. www.semafor.com/article/06/2...

Memories... www.vox.com/policy-and-p...

www.politico.com/blogs/media/...

Bush's first debate in 2004. Reagan's first debate in 1984.

It is a universal truth of social media that few people born before 1965 can distinguish between a public comment and a private message. Even Barbara. www.washingtonpost.com/style/of-int...

I love Magic, but this is pretty funny.

Pay taxes. Raise taxes higher. Organize labor unions and give them money. Fund local community groups and religious congregations that build social capital so politicians will be pressured to respond to people's needs. Fund and organize local political party orgs. Fund left-of-center media orgs.

New Fivethirtyeight forecast shows the presidential race a dead heat. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-electio...

Reply to

eric gonzalez juenke

Yes, Dems were saved in 2022 by the pattern that Trump voters only vote in presidential elections. abcnews.go.com/538/vote-bac...

Before arguing about whose fault it was (if any), important to start with the basic fact that public discontent is primarily about high inflation combined with expiration of various income supports causing real income to decline in the middle of Biden's term, -6% in 2022 by my calculation on Fred.

Reply to

Kieran Healy

The title upsets people, but this is one of the more insightful social science papers on campaign finance: Given the lax U.S. laws and the huge potential returns, it's actually a puzzle why there isn't more political spending. pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/...

Reply to

Jonathan Ladd

Again, an argument that the entire criminal justice system is incapable of making fair decisions and needs to be scrapped. They support prison abolition, but only when the topic is Donald Trump.

Reply to

Jonathan Ladd

Again, these people talk as if it's impossible to imagine or hope that the criminal justice system's processes successfully determine who is really guilty and who is innocent. Prison abolition, but only for the rich and powerful.