Jonathan Ladd: Before arguing about whose fault it was (if any), important to start with the basic fact that public discontent is primarily about high inflation combined with expiration of various income supports causing real income to decline in the middle of Biden's term, -6% in 2022 by my calculation on Fred.

Before arguing about whose fault it was (if any), important to start with the basic fact that public discontent is primarily about high inflation combined with expiration of various income supports causing real income to decline in the middle of Biden's term, -6% in 2022 by my calculation on Fred.

Fred can't save exact settings, but this is the link to create this yourself. It was unfortunate that the relatively modest (by historical standards) inflation hit pretty much exactly at the time when special government support programs expired. fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DSPIC...

Real Disposable Personal Incomefred.stlouisfed.org Real Disposable Personal Income

I wish the child tax credit was made permanent originally, and wish it was extended permanently in 2022. I wish SNAP was expanded too. Dems had 50 votes and came 1 vote short (Manchin). Given the state of West Virginia, there's no lesson except they need more Senate seats in any way possible.

People indeed experienced economic hardship. It's also true that change in economic circumstances (even inflation-adjusted) has been going solidly in the right direction in the last year or more. And it's also long been true that swing voters don't distinguish which party is **really** at fault.

Political scientists have long found that presidential voting is correlated with real personal income growth in the election year (GDP as well but a weaker correlation). You could draw lots of different political conclusions based on this whole background. But first you need to understand it.

if we rely on Bartels & Achen, we’re most interested in real income growth over the next five months. here’s hoping.

I think if there’s one thing I could teach the average inattentive American voter, one thing that they promised me would stick in their brains, it would be about the existence of midterm elections. www.politico.com/news/2023/11...

Americans are losing benefits. That could hurt Biden in 2024.www.politico.com Expiring Covid benefits and new limits on safety net programs threaten to hit Americans' pocketbooks — especially among core parts of the Democratic electorate.

Yes, Dems were saved in 2022 by the pattern that Trump voters only vote in presidential elections. abcnews.go.com/538/vote-bac...

What support do you actually have for that assertion, though? People think they are doing well, they think their state economies are doing well, and they think unemployment is at a 50 year high. Are they really moving to the right because they want a more generous welfare state?

Yeah he says it's a "basic fact" but the evidence presented here is just a correlation.

The Manchin-sparked discontent. Biden was one freekin vote away from permanently keeping the childcare tax credit and other support. Much pain resulted.

I don't disagree exactly, but I don't think we can know the effects of the pandemic on public discontent. Maybe it's not a factor at all, maybe it's a small one, but it could a be a major factor. Just no historical comparison to go by.

I agree with that. We just can't know the political effects of the broad social and psychological trauma. But we know that real disposable income growth has big political consequences. So I think we can start with that, before getting into the unknown stuff.

Reasonable.

Ha, the mainstream media has been pushing the Recession narrative since Biden took office. Which is before 2022

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