eric gonzalez juenke

@egojunk.bsky.social

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Personal account. I study racial and ethnic politics here: https://polisci.msu.edu/people/directory/juenke-eric.html

The Presidency and Immigration Policy: Rhetoric and Reality https://bit.ly/4cZUG9A

Posts Replies Media

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eric gonzalez juenke

Counterpoint: This changes nothing. The Dems strategic situation is the same. Biden is still too old to run a normal campaign or finish 4 more years. He could win, but is currently behind with no real plan. Trump remains an aspiring authoritarian strongman. More dangerous than ever.

Why are Democrats like this?

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eric gonzalez juenke

This contrast is no surprise. Moderate/vulnerable Democrats have been the ones expressing concerns about Biden publicly. Progressives have largely been in his corner. abcnews.go.com/538/democrat...

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eric gonzalez juenke

Marriage rates are down. Men have fewer close friends nearby and are as lonely as ever. The solution isn’t more marriage. The solution is giving men the latitude to exercise soft skills like how to make friends and socialize themselves. www.nytimes.com/2024/07/13/m...

Robert Putnam Knows Why You’re Lonelywww.nytimes.com The author of “Bowling Alone” warned us about social isolation and its effect on democracy a quarter century ago. Things have only gotten worse.

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eric gonzalez juenke

Partisan gender gap is largest for divorcees (relative to coupled and single men and women). substack.com/home/post/p-...

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eric gonzalez juenke

exposure to claims that Democrats engage in election fraud prompts Republican partisans to increase their support for political violence & reduces trust of people of different races and religions journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

Allegations of Democratic Election Fraud and Support for Political Violence Among Republicans - James A. Piazza, 2024journals.sagepub.com Are partisans more likely to endorse political violence when politicians accuse their rivals of election improprieties? I theorize that for Republican partisans...

It’s hard to know if these people aren’t actually trying to keep Biden on the ticket with these stupid ideas. www.politico.com/live-updates...

24 former Dem lawmakers to Biden: Allow an open conventionwww.politico.com "President Biden would best serve the nation he loves by releasing the convention delegates who are pledged to nominate him for a second term. His decision to do so would mean an open convention in Au...

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eric gonzalez juenke

New Gallup polling: 81% of Americans support citizenship for Dreamers; 70% back broader path to citizenship; and by 2:1 margin, still support immigration as “good thing” for America. americasvoice.org/press_releas...

New Gallup Immigration Polling: Americans Remain Strongly Supportive of Immigration and Citizenship; Want Reform Over Broken Status Quo - America's Voiceamericasvoice.org Washington, DC – New immigration polling from Gallup, the latest installment in their annual poll, finds that Americans overwhelmingly recognize that immigrants and immigration are still good things f...

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eric gonzalez juenke

People in US will identify w/ multiple ideological labels which convey meaningful information about how people decide between hypothetical candidates. Interestingly, sometimes labels relate to somewhat similar issue bundles, making the category itself informative. link.springer.com/article/10.1...

It’s just scammers all the way down…

What a read

She Made $10,000 a Month Defrauding Apps like Uber and Instacart. Meet the Queen of the Rideshare Mafiawww.wired.com Priscila Barbosa came to the US with a dream of making it. Using gig-economy platforms she built a business empire up from nothing. There was just one huge problem.

It’s not controversial to say this is result of the far right wing of the party taking over the GOP.

New from Gallup: "For the first time in nearly two decades, a majority of Americans think immigration to the U.S. should be decreased." news.gallup.com/poll/647123/...

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eric gonzalez juenke

The difference between 2016 and 2020 (and what it suggests about another 2016ish election). www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

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eric gonzalez juenke

Reply to

Brendan Nyhan

fwiw, if he'd done this in the debate, the last 2 weeks would have been really different.

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eric gonzalez juenke

Tracking towards a July signal of September cut (Goolsbee is the most dovish FOMC member)

The relatively public nature of the last week suggested that this would eventually succeed: if you come after the king you’d better be sure you’re not going to miss. So the fact that this is still simmering publicly remains interesting. www.politico.com/newsletters/...

Playbook: What Obama and Pelosi are doing about Bidenwww.politico.com And more from this week's NATO summit.

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eric gonzalez juenke

Could deliberation about Biden be done quietly, perhaps without messy deliberation? Probably not. Much of power in party is decentralized and requires a means of decision making more like public signaling and cell-to-cell quorum sensing. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quorum_... HT @j2bryson.bsky.social

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eric gonzalez juenke

Will abolishing Chevron move Congress to legislate w/ greater specificity? Count me skeptical. Boosting institutional capacity leaves in place electoral and political roots of lawmakers’ preference for vague laws. New @goodauth.bsky.social post w/ Forrest Maltzman🤓 goodauthority.org/news/abolish...

Abolishing Chevron could undermine, not empower, Congressgoodauthority.org (cc) Don Sniegowski, via Flickr. The Supreme Court in Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo (2024) has ripped up a 40-year-old doctrine known as “Chevron

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eric gonzalez juenke

How Think Tanks Drive Polarization & Policy Project 2025 is just the latest step in the long rise of partisan think tanks; they helped polarize Congress, replacing non-partisan expertise New #ScienceOfPolitics with @ejfagan.bsky.social on The Thinkers www.niskanencenter.org/how-think-ta...

How think tanks drive polarization and policy - Niskanen Centerwww.niskanencenter.org Democrats and Republicans rely on partisan think tanks for policy proposals, along with the numbers and findings that justify them.

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eric gonzalez juenke

Another example of motivated reasoning to avoid. FiveThirtyEight's overall set-up is the same as past years: it includes both current polls and it predicts how polls will move based on past elections. Don't reject the results just because it's not what you want to see or you like Nate Silver.

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eric gonzalez juenke

Trying to stay out of the Biden internet debate, but wrote this piece about how the formal rules of the nomination process aren't really the problem. It's all about the informal ruleshttps://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/biden-replacement-president-race-democrat-history-rcna160923

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eric gonzalez juenke

www.research-live.com/article/news...

Pollsters react to Labour election victory | Newswww.research-live.com Market research industry figures have welcomed the new Labour government after a landslide general election victory largely predicted by pre-election day polling.

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eric gonzalez juenke

Because I've spent 21+ years studying US immigration policy and law, I have no doubt DHS would abuse it's power and be the federal agency that does the most harm to the most people. This agency is awash in resources & capacity to surveil immigrants AND citizens. See for details: shorturl.at/XfQZp

DHS is 100000% the Federal agency to worry about the most, in a second Trump administration. They're hardly under control in the best of times.

The Green Monstershorturl.at How the Border Patrol became America’s most out-of-control law enforcement agency.

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eric gonzalez juenke

Enjoyed going on NewsNation to talk about Roadblocked and the Biden-Harris transition

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eric gonzalez juenke

Great paper - forthcoming in JOP www.raymondduch.com/files/how-to...

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eric gonzalez juenke

We're hiring! The political science department at Clemson University is searching for an Associate Professor or Professor in "domestic, comparative, or international public policy; policymaking processes; or public administration" for fall 2025. apply.interfolio.com/149108 #poliscijobs

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eric gonzalez juenke

Wasn’t aware of this paper. It’s good

No idea if @baseballot.bsky.social or @gelliottmorris.bsky.social and co are reading our papers but this combination of displays is very similar to what we recommended in our most recent set of studies: dl.acm.org/doi/full/10....

In Dice We Trust: Uncertainty Displays for Maintaining Trust in Election Forecasts Over Time | Proceedings of the CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systemsdl.acm.org

This kid knows what they’re doing. 90%% turnout.

turns out my state is having a contest on "I Voted" sticker designs, and I would like to show you the most metal one by a middle schooler:

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eric gonzalez juenke

This will be an interesting day to reflect on in the future. "Battery cells at $50/kWh means the technology to decarbonize most of road transport globally is already here, as opposed to in some future scenario." EVs are cheaper than ICE now. Today.

China’s Batteries Are Now Cheap Enough to Power Huge Shiftswww.bloomberg.com We no longer need to model for when cell prices drop far enough to decarbonize road transport. That day is here.

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eric gonzalez juenke

Reliable economic statistics are crucial for good policymaking. Which is why it's concerning that falling response rates and shrinking budgets are endangering the work of federal statistical agencies. My story on a new report from the American Statistical Association: www.nytimes.com/2024/07/09/b...

Reliability of U.S. Economic Data Is in Jeopardy, Study Findswww.nytimes.com A report says new approaches and increased spending are needed to ensure that government statistics remain dependable and free of political influence.

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eric gonzalez juenke

Black support for Harris has been weaker than Black support for Biden over the past four years. Here's why replacing Biden with Harris may not mobilize Black voters: goodauthority.org/news/replaci... Reach the latest from @tesler.bsky.social and Samantha Canty.

Why replacing Biden with Harris may not mobilize Black votersgoodauthority.org Black support for Kamala Harris has trailed Black support for Joe Biden. Can Harris boost her popularity among Black voters?

This looks over for now. But the problem Biden and the Dems face is that he slept through the midterm multiple choice exam (the debate) and the makeup exam is multiple oral and essay exams, and Dems have sent their warning.

Joe Biden has some new arguments for staying in the race. They are compelling — but they won’t settle the issue. danieldrezner.substack.com/p/bidens-new...

Joe Biden's Arguments For Staying Indanieldrezner.substack.com They are compelling, but will they work?