Phillips OBrien

@phillipspobrien.bsky.social

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Professor of Strategic Studies, Author, Lover of Sicily

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Hi All, just sent out my weekend update…these are free. We are now 3 months into the major Russian offensive to take Avdiivka; so some stock taking. Also interesting to compare his reporting of the Ukrainian counteroffensive is rather different in conclusions. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Weekend Update #63: 3 months of Russian Avdiivka Assaultsopen.substack.com Reporting on Avdiivka versus the Ukrainian Counteroffensive; The US Congress gets to Crunch Time

Than what is happening with the Russian attacks now. One is now said to be a clear failure while the other a sign of relentless determination. Finally, a quick update on the US Congress and aid for Ukraine.

Hi All, Just sent out a rather unexpected thought piece on Substack. Is it time for Europe and the US to go their own ways on security…and would that actually be a good thing? open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Is it time now for Europe to go its own way?open.substack.com As a long-time believer in the centrality of the US-European alliance, I'm starting to have doubts

Hi All, sent out a midweek update which looks at the extreme timidity of the US in its escalation policy towards Russia, and contrasts that to the USSR and China and their fears of challenging the USA in the Korean and Vietnam Wars. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

The Historical Exceptionalism of US Escalation Policy and the War in Ukraineopen.substack.com Why is the US so much more frightened than the USSR and China During the Korean and Vietnam Wars?

n Korea and Vietnam, both the USSR and China were willing to commit forces to directly fight the US, were willing to send their most advanced military equipment--moreover both wanted their allies to win. They didnt somehow want to give the US a victory in Vietnam.

Hi All, Just released my weekend update on substack (its free. A few big stories this week. 1) the return of strategic bombing that we are seeing in this war. 2), reports of a new Russian offensive, 3) signs of some GOP support for Ukraine open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Weekend Update #62, The Return of Strategic Bombingopen.substack.com Also: A New Russian Offensive? and, US Political (GOP) Update

Hi all, @mykolabielieskov.bsky.social and I have just released our latest episode of the Ukraine Russia War Podcast. Available on Buzzsprout and sstak. We talk about the Russian missile/UAV bombardment; what the Russians are trying to do and how Ukraine is coping. www.buzzsprout.com/2279186/1425...

Episode 6: What are Russians and Ukrainians attacking? Ukrainian Strategy, Reporting - Ukraine Russi...www.buzzsprout.com At the start of the episode we discuss Come Back Alive, and announce our plan to have a UAV operator who has worked with them to speak on the next episode (hopefully). Then we go over the stepped up R...

Then we discuss Ukrainian attacks against on Russian military targets. Ukrainian strategy and reports that Putin wants a ceasefire. Also next time, we are hoping to have our first guest. Enjoy! substackcdn.com/image/fetch/...

Was a little overwhelmed by feedback to the Wall Street Journal article Some people were rather surprised I would question whether the Biden Administration wants Ukraine to win the war. Just wrote a substack explaining why—and answering some of the criticisms. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

New commentary piece in the @WSJ . The lack of ranged weapons for Ukraine supplied by the administration is now ridiculous, with Russia bombarding Ukraine anywhere it wants. Does the administration actually want Ukraine to win the war? www.wsj.com/articles/doe...

Opinion | Does Biden Want Ukraine to Win?www.wsj.com By not arming Kyiv for a long-range campaign against Russia, the U.S. seems to be forcing a deal.

Why would I write that WSJ article?open.substack.com Because not being a MAGA Populist doesn't keep you from making disastrous choices

Opinion | Does Biden Want Ukraine to Win?www.wsj.com By not arming Kyiv for a long-range campaign against Russia, the U.S. seems to be forcing a deal.

Well, here we are on New Year’s Eve. People getting ready to celebrate, and I’m wondering if I can get into bed before 9pm tonight!

Hi All, just sent out my weekend update (free as always). Focussed on what I called the two attacks. These are the Ukrainian sinking of the Novocherkassk and the Russian attack on almost every major Ukrainian city yesterday. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Weekend Update #61 The Two Attacksopen.substack.com Why the simpler, smaller operation looks to have a greater strategic impact

Though one was much larger (the attack on Ukrainian cities), it’s not clear that it had any strategic advantage for Russia, especially considering the vast expense. The sinking of the Novocherkassk, otoh, was a clear strategic success at modest cost.

Reply to

Ed Southall

glad you enjoyed it. Nothing quite like a 6am interview to start the day.

I’ve seen lots of pieces summarising the war in 2023 and where we might be heading in 2024 for Ukraine. I’ve always been loathe to do that, as predictions are almost impossible (depends so much on what the US Congress does), but bit the bullet and wrote a substack. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Looking Back in 2023 and Forward to 2024open.substack.com What I got wrong and right, and what might happen in the coming year.

The war will be fundamentally different depending on what the US does. Ultimately i do think a deal is reached between the President and Congress, but that still leads to a very bloody year.

Reposted by

Phillips OBrien

⚡⚡⚡ In Feodosia, Russian large landing ship "Novocherkassk" was destroyed by Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG ❗

Though Ive lived in the UK for decades--I still hope sometime one Americanism will take over here. Merry Christmas is so much better than Happy Christmas. It festive, and warming to say Merry. Lets make the change now!

Reply to

Richard Elliot

Appreciate that Richard

Hi all, just sent out my weekend substack update. Focussed on the shoot down of the Russian SU-34’s and did a case study of what it reveals. Ukraine has regularly shown that it can effectively use advanced weaponry, yet always has to wait to get them. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Weekend Update #60 Ukraine shows what it can do when armed properlyopen.substack.com A case study of where we are in the war

These delays are lengthening the war and costing lives. Yet starting before Feb 24, 2022 there have been the same arguments against arming Ukraine with advanced systems, given over and over. Sorry for sending all the content out today and yesterday. Clearing the decks for Christmas!

This seems so self evidently the right and just thing to do. www.rferl.org/a/russia-g7-...

G7 Said To Be 'Moving Closer' To Seizing $300 Billion In Russian Assets For Ukrainewww.rferl.org Group of Seven member states have intensified efforts to agree on funneling some of the $300 billion in "immobilized" Russian central bank and other sovereign assets to Ukraine just as massive U.S. an...

For those who missed it yesterday, @MBielieskov and I released our latest Ukraine Russia War Talk podcast. The last for 2023. We talk about the front line, Ukrainian strategy and the effectiveness of Ukr anti air (recorded before the SU-34 shoot down). www.buzzsprout.com/2279186/1419...

www.buzzsprout.com

Reply to

Joe

They will always be free, but please consider Come Back Alive for a donation if you want to support us.

We have a logo on here now….i can almost hear it chirp…

Meet our new logo: the social butterfly! Like a butterfly emerging from its chrysalis, we are starting to open up. Posts on Bluesky are now accessible through the public web view.

Hi all, @mykolabielieskov.bsky.social and I just released our latest Ukraine-Russia War Podcast episode. We discuss the situation on the frontline, Ukrainian strategy in 2024 and Ukrainian air defense (rather timely after today. Available on Buzzsprout and substack. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Episode 5: The Front Line, Ukrainian Strategy, Air Defenseopen.substack.com plus a little on Christmas in Ukraine.

All episodes are available for free on buzzsprout (and commercial free). If you want to support our work, please consider a donation to Come Back Alive--the Ukrainian charity we both strongly support. www.buzzsprout.com/2279186/epis...

Looks like a car that someone from the 1930s would think would be built in the 1960s

According to Russian media, the Moscow Polytechnic Institute has unveiled this "Tesla-killer" made-in-Russia electric vehicle, to be produced by Russian automaker Avtotor by 2025.

Though tbh, it’s not as ugly as cybertruck.

Thanks!