Phillips OBrien

@phillipspobrien.bsky.social

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Professor of Strategic Studies, Author, Lover of Sicily

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Hi All, just sent out my weekend update…these are free. We are now 3 months into the major Russian offensive to take Avdiivka; so some stock taking. Also interesting to compare his reporting of the Ukrainian counteroffensive is rather different in conclusions. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Weekend Update #63: 3 months of Russian Avdiivka Assaultsopen.substack.com Reporting on Avdiivka versus the Ukrainian Counteroffensive; The US Congress gets to Crunch Time

Hi All, Just sent out a rather unexpected thought piece on Substack. Is it time for Europe and the US to go their own ways on security…and would that actually be a good thing? open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Is it time now for Europe to go its own way?open.substack.com As a long-time believer in the centrality of the US-European alliance, I'm starting to have doubts

Hi All, sent out a midweek update which looks at the extreme timidity of the US in its escalation policy towards Russia, and contrasts that to the USSR and China and their fears of challenging the USA in the Korean and Vietnam Wars. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

The Historical Exceptionalism of US Escalation Policy and the War in Ukraineopen.substack.com Why is the US so much more frightened than the USSR and China During the Korean and Vietnam Wars?

Hi All, Just released my weekend update on substack (its free. A few big stories this week. 1) the return of strategic bombing that we are seeing in this war. 2), reports of a new Russian offensive, 3) signs of some GOP support for Ukraine open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Weekend Update #62, The Return of Strategic Bombingopen.substack.com Also: A New Russian Offensive? and, US Political (GOP) Update

Hi all, @mykolabielieskov.bsky.social and I have just released our latest episode of the Ukraine Russia War Podcast. Available on Buzzsprout and sstak. We talk about the Russian missile/UAV bombardment; what the Russians are trying to do and how Ukraine is coping. www.buzzsprout.com/2279186/1425...

Episode 6: What are Russians and Ukrainians attacking? Ukrainian Strategy, Reporting - Ukraine Russi...www.buzzsprout.com At the start of the episode we discuss Come Back Alive, and announce our plan to have a UAV operator who has worked with them to speak on the next episode (hopefully). Then we go over the stepped up R...

Was a little overwhelmed by feedback to the Wall Street Journal article Some people were rather surprised I would question whether the Biden Administration wants Ukraine to win the war. Just wrote a substack explaining why—and answering some of the criticisms. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

New commentary piece in the @WSJ . The lack of ranged weapons for Ukraine supplied by the administration is now ridiculous, with Russia bombarding Ukraine anywhere it wants. Does the administration actually want Ukraine to win the war? www.wsj.com/articles/doe...

Opinion | Does Biden Want Ukraine to Win?www.wsj.com By not arming Kyiv for a long-range campaign against Russia, the U.S. seems to be forcing a deal.

Why would I write that WSJ article?open.substack.com Because not being a MAGA Populist doesn't keep you from making disastrous choices

Opinion | Does Biden Want Ukraine to Win?www.wsj.com By not arming Kyiv for a long-range campaign against Russia, the U.S. seems to be forcing a deal.

Well, here we are on New Year’s Eve. People getting ready to celebrate, and I’m wondering if I can get into bed before 9pm tonight!

Hi All, just sent out my weekend update (free as always). Focussed on what I called the two attacks. These are the Ukrainian sinking of the Novocherkassk and the Russian attack on almost every major Ukrainian city yesterday. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Weekend Update #61 The Two Attacksopen.substack.com Why the simpler, smaller operation looks to have a greater strategic impact

I’ve seen lots of pieces summarising the war in 2023 and where we might be heading in 2024 for Ukraine. I’ve always been loathe to do that, as predictions are almost impossible (depends so much on what the US Congress does), but bit the bullet and wrote a substack. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Looking Back in 2023 and Forward to 2024open.substack.com What I got wrong and right, and what might happen in the coming year.

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⚡⚡⚡ In Feodosia, Russian large landing ship "Novocherkassk" was destroyed by Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG ❗

Though Ive lived in the UK for decades--I still hope sometime one Americanism will take over here. Merry Christmas is so much better than Happy Christmas. It festive, and warming to say Merry. Lets make the change now!

Hi all, just sent out my weekend substack update. Focussed on the shoot down of the Russian SU-34’s and did a case study of what it reveals. Ukraine has regularly shown that it can effectively use advanced weaponry, yet always has to wait to get them. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Weekend Update #60 Ukraine shows what it can do when armed properlyopen.substack.com A case study of where we are in the war

This seems so self evidently the right and just thing to do. www.rferl.org/a/russia-g7-...

G7 Said To Be 'Moving Closer' To Seizing $300 Billion In Russian Assets For Ukrainewww.rferl.org Group of Seven member states have intensified efforts to agree on funneling some of the $300 billion in "immobilized" Russian central bank and other sovereign assets to Ukraine just as massive U.S. an...

For those who missed it yesterday, @MBielieskov and I released our latest Ukraine Russia War Talk podcast. The last for 2023. We talk about the front line, Ukrainian strategy and the effectiveness of Ukr anti air (recorded before the SU-34 shoot down). www.buzzsprout.com/2279186/1419...

www.buzzsprout.com

We have a logo on here now….i can almost hear it chirp…

Meet our new logo: the social butterfly! Like a butterfly emerging from its chrysalis, we are starting to open up. Posts on Bluesky are now accessible through the public web view.

Hi all, @mykolabielieskov.bsky.social and I just released our latest Ukraine-Russia War Podcast episode. We discuss the situation on the frontline, Ukrainian strategy in 2024 and Ukrainian air defense (rather timely after today. Available on Buzzsprout and substack. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Episode 5: The Front Line, Ukrainian Strategy, Air Defenseopen.substack.com plus a little on Christmas in Ukraine.

Looks like a car that someone from the 1930s would think would be built in the 1960s

According to Russian media, the Moscow Polytechnic Institute has unveiled this "Tesla-killer" made-in-Russia electric vehicle, to be produced by Russian automaker Avtotor by 2025.

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time for Elon to create a BlueSky account to tell us what’s going on

Hi All, sent out a substack on the very complex world facing Ukrainian strategy makers. They are being asked to devise a strategy, yet have no idea what aid they will receive. They are being asked to say how they will achieve their aims with no idea of their means. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

The Ends, Ways and Means of Ukrainian Strategyopen.substack.com The 4 possible scenarios and the complexity of planning.

As a long time resident of Scotland, Burns Night would be much nicer with black pudding and bourbon over haggis and a single malt (especially the terrible peaty ones). I will show myself out….

Just sent out the always free substack weekend update. This seems to have been important week in the European understanding that European states might soon be left on their mostly on their own to keep Ukraine supported. Across Europe there were new pledges. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Weekend Update #59 Europe Stepping Upopen.substack.com Europe has given more than the USA already, Last Week, Getting Ukraine through 2024

Excellent

Huge EU enlargement decision

Well, doesn’t look like there was a deal almost done, which makes this trip very weird. Don’t understand it…unless something comes together soon after Zelensky leaves.

More and more signs a deal is close to being done. Could be the best few days for Ukraine for a while.

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This is so important. For those who remain sceptical, Macron yesterday confirmed in a call to Zelensky that 🇫🇷will back the opening of EU membership negotiations with 🇺🇦 at the EU summit on December 14-15. If the decision is blocked, or postponed, it won’t be because of France

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saying things about bitcoin on the internet while female, a visual guide (on.ft.com/3RDwL72)

More and more signs a deal is close to being done. Could be the best few days for Ukraine for a while.

A strong sign that a deal on aid to Ukraine is close to being done. Otherwise, Biden would be running a major risk of embarassing himself and Zelensky. I’m going with a deal.

Biden will host Ukrainian President Zelensky at the White House on Tuesday as discussions on an aid deal remain stalled in Congress https://cnn.it/4afA9MJ

Appreciate that!

Another excellent piece of analysis by @phillipspobrien.bsky.social open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

The best way to make this unlikely is to have a whole and free Ukraine integrated into NATO. Its remarkable Germany doesnt push more for that--the inability of state's to understand what is in their 'interest' continues to baffle. news.yahoo.com/german-bunde...

German Bundeswehr Inspector General warns of potential defensive war against Russianews.yahoo.com Germany may have to wage a defensive war against Russia in the future, German televisions news program Tagesschau reported on Dec. 9, citing Bundeswehr (German Armed Forces) Inspector General Carsten ...