post malone ergo propter malone: you don't need any of those states to win as Biden; hold PA/WI/MI and split the NE/ME single-districts and that's 270

fwiw 538 polling average now has Biden up in WI and MI

... polls only or polls plus fundamentals?

polls only

I think, am on my phone

So we now have two models that are more pessimistic than 538 and I think the pessimists are a bit more correct. Still, Biden is in a better place than Trump was in 2016 and there are some reasons for optimism.

I hadn't noticed that NV and AZ are pretty close and I think in AZ there are good reasons to believe he'll gain ground. GA I think you still need polls to tighten, otherwise you're relying on a freakish big error.

you don't need any of those states to win as Biden; hold PA/WI/MI and split the NE/ME single-districts and that's 270

i doubt that'll be what happens, because i think it's likely that Biden takes at least another state or two conditioned on him taking PA/WI/MI. but that's the minimum victory map

Right, but those states are reasonably tightly correlated and at the moment he's behind in PA even in 538. You need Biden to develop 1-2 more "out cards".

I will say that I think one of the weaknesses in Silver's modeling is that it weights tail outcomes (Biden winning MI/NV/WI but losing VA or MN, etc) as too likely. The counter argument is that no one tail outcome is likely, but unlike House races we just don't see tail outcomes in the presidential

Obama winning Indiana is the closest thing to a tail outcome in the last 25 years.

I’d say it counts. The last polls 538 had put MO as Tied or +2 (McCain won), and IN as McCain +5.3 and +8. And Obama won the overall PV by 7.2%, 1.1 points beyond their predicted margin. fivethirtyeight.com/features/tod...

Today’s Polls and Final Election Projection: Obama 349, McCain 189fivethirtyeight.com It’s Tuesday, November 4th, 2008, Election Day in America. The last polls have straggled in, and show little sign of mercy for John McCain. Barack Obama appears…

i will happily give Silver 20:1 odds that RFK wins zero EVs, put it that way

Silver is no longer at 538, unless you mean he has his own model out?

But the 538 tails are way too big, yeah. I'm not sure it affects the top line much except pushing it towards 50:50 a bit, because it's in both directions

he does

it's more bearish on Biden than the 538 model

Playing to his new audience

Did he keep Fivey in the divorce?

does he have a website, or is he going door to door trying to shock libs with the model

No, G Elliot Morris is holding his fursona captive. This is what has led to Silver spiraling into madness.

He has his own model (which is more pessimistic than GEM at at 538)

(or optimistic if we’re feeling snarky)

i think that's going to come, or is already coming, and we'll see it as state polling density picks up

sorry, when you say "out cards" what do you mean? BC all the states are so correlated, doesn't that just mean to improve the overall share? Or are you saying NV/AZ don't correlate necessarily that well with GA/NC or WI/PA/MI?

I'm assuming that this is in the poker sense, that it would be nice if there were a chance he could win Iowa or Texas or Ohio to have a different path towards the presidency than the ones we're expecting.

(If you want it explained in detail, it’s like I’m losing but if a 2, a 7, or a 6 comes up as the next card, I’d win the hand. Those would be my out cards.)

ahh, i see, thanks!

Def would be nice. Another thing that I think is bullish for Biden is his ground game in WI/MI/PA actually is likely to be materially better than Trump's. And biden's team doesn't seem to be making the 2016ish mistake of getting starry eyes. They do appear focused on the tipping pt states.

The last sentence here, yes.

If Biden wins MI it will be by the skin of his teeth and with the lowest margin ever recorded by a Democratic candidate in metro Detroit after WW2. :(

i do not think this is correct but we'll see!

I mean I hope I’m wrong, I just know where I’m putting my money down if I’m betting.

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