lowtax speedrun enjoyer: this was basically how he won ga iirc. there weren’t really any more gains for trump to make after decades of dem erosion outside the metro but he had a whole lot to lose in the burbs

This poll is *wild* Head to head Biden wins under 35s by less than three points. He is up 15 points with 65+. A bunch of the other cross-tabs look basically plausible.

latest fox news national poll is the best Fox News for Biden since October www.foxnews.com/official-pol...

Biden is +5 in the suburbs (+19 with suburban women), +27 with “moderates” (self-ID), and wins 40% of rural whites. If you assume that under-35s are basically impossible to accurately poll in this era the guts of this thing spell an absolute collapse for Trump.

i mean put me down for doubt on him winning 40% of whites period, let alone rural ones

lots of other polling has Biden strong with whites

sure but when was the last time a dem won 40% of rural whites? clinton? maybe carter? i don’t think we’ve won 40% of all whites since 08

I mean, if you think there's nonwhite collapse and Biden is ~tied then white surge is the necessary corollary.

true but i’m skeptical of both tbh i *can* imagine biden improving with whites as he bottoms out in the rurals and winemomification continues

this was basically how he won ga iirc. there weren’t really any more gains for trump to make after decades of dem erosion outside the metro but he had a whole lot to lose in the burbs

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