This poll is *wild*
Head to head Biden wins under 35s by less than three points. He is up 15 points with 65+.
A bunch of the other cross-tabs look basically plausible.
Biden is +5 in the suburbs (+19 with suburban women), +27 with “moderates” (self-ID), and wins 40% of rural whites. If you assume that under-35s are basically impossible to accurately poll in this era the guts of this thing spell an absolute collapse for Trump.
this was basically how he won ga iirc. there weren’t really any more gains for trump to make after decades of dem erosion outside the metro but he had a whole lot to lose in the burbs
A lot of all of the poor polls for biden seem like they can be explained with: dems are in the same spot or better as 20/22 but no one's paying attention enough to talk to pollsters yet
my pocket explanation of the polling collapse among young Black voters is, pandemic destroyed a lot of the social structures that had elders making sure the youth voted Democratic, but those are also the social structures that had elders making sure the youth voted
so a 30-point swing by gender? that's insane, and like everything in Trump-era politics I'm wondering if it's a Trump effect or a broader (likely Dobbs-based) one.
I wonder about the long-term effects of that trend. I had assumed it ~mostly washed out on a personal level because of geographic sorting, but a 30-point swing is nuts. Especially with the parties also being very polarized.
just to start with, how is that stable? in my head, you get race-related or urban-rural polarization because the communities are (or can be) isolated from one another, but that doesn't work with men and women. is the future the US turning into South Korea?
It's a really good point (though it was ~7% diff in 2020 i think). I agree and don't think it's distinguishable particularly from broader polarization trends. I can't see how Dobbs makes it better, ya know? There's just so much tension in the political system right now, it's ... a lot.
That gap sounds right. White women are evenly divided and women of color are Dems.
Maybe 40% of Latino men and 15% of Black men (ceilings) vote republican.
Most Asian Americans vote democratic, and while the GOP has tried to use immigration and business ownership as a wedge, their robes show.
Both. White women get singled out for 2016, but even among white voters it’s +15 white men for trump, and white women were pretty much 51% republican since 2000.
So Dobbs and how completely awful trump is swung it further.
It's important to remember that the male vote swinging so wildly is often a regional phenomenon. If Trump is leading men +45 in the south that's going to throw things off if it's a more expected 45/55 or 50/50 split in other regions. I still don't believe the polls either way.
yeah, 40% seems wild and wrong (which makes sense, it's a subgroup in a poll) but broadly being stronger is consistent with other polling, which is also odd but explainable w fundamentals re their demographics
