post malone ergo propter malone: lots of other polling has Biden strong with whites

This poll is *wild* Head to head Biden wins under 35s by less than three points. He is up 15 points with 65+. A bunch of the other cross-tabs look basically plausible.

latest fox news national poll is the best Fox News for Biden since October www.foxnews.com/official-pol...

Biden is +5 in the suburbs (+19 with suburban women), +27 with “moderates” (self-ID), and wins 40% of rural whites. If you assume that under-35s are basically impossible to accurately poll in this era the guts of this thing spell an absolute collapse for Trump.

i mean put me down for doubt on him winning 40% of whites period, let alone rural ones

lots of other polling has Biden strong with whites

sure but when was the last time a dem won 40% of rural whites? clinton? maybe carter? i don’t think we’ve won 40% of all whites since 08

(and even then barely - i think obama pulled 41 or something)

I mean, if you think there's nonwhite collapse and Biden is ~tied then white surge is the necessary corollary.

true but i’m skeptical of both tbh i *can* imagine biden improving with whites as he bottoms out in the rurals and winemomification continues

this was basically how he won ga iirc. there weren’t really any more gains for trump to make after decades of dem erosion outside the metro but he had a whole lot to lose in the burbs

I think gender gap swallowing everything pretty much explains what we're seeing

this poll has men at Trump+15 and women at Biden+17 and at some point that just swamps the other demographic characteristics

this is also a reason I think Blacks in particular will come home, because Black turnout ops are very substantially woman-driven

so a 30-point swing by gender? that's insane, and like everything in Trump-era politics I'm wondering if it's a Trump effect or a broader (likely Dobbs-based) one.

I chose the bear

It's important to remember that the male vote swinging so wildly is often a regional phenomenon. If Trump is leading men +45 in the south that's going to throw things off if it's a more expected 45/55 or 50/50 split in other regions. I still don't believe the polls either way.

Rural white women "wow, this sucks having all the hospitals lose maternity services."

It's downstream of the edpol

Okay the crosstabs are strong indicators of the old Dems throwing everything else off. I dunno...

yeah, 40% seems wild and wrong (which makes sense, it's a subgroup in a poll) but broadly being stronger is consistent with other polling, which is also odd but explainable w fundamentals re their demographics

Has anybody done an estimate of how many people are going to flip their vote if these polls hold? It must an extraordinary number. 10% of 65+ year olds are going to vote not only for the opposite party they did last time, but literally the opposite person on the same ballot

(some of them were 61 and some are dead and some are not voting, ok, so maybe it's 7%-8%, it would still be a lot more than usual, right?)

Some are people coming into and out of the electorate, but I'm guessing this will be a 140m election, 2020 was 160k, so there's a bunch of voters dropping out. I could see reluctant Trump voters in 2020 not voting this time around.

The variation is a lot more pronounced for 65+ though

the specific dynamic where the race is the exact same two people seems like it will have weird effects that are hard to predict. also the thing where they have both been president before.

Fwiw, Pew's analysis of validated voters says Biden won 43% of non-Hispanic Whites in 2020

Behind Biden’s 2020 Victorywww.pewresearch.org A new analysis of 2020 validated voters examines change and continuity in the electorate, both of which contributed to Joe Biden’s victory. It looks at how new voters and voters who turned out in eith...

ah fair enough. had not seen it but this i buy much more than the exit poll

ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-v... Based on this, Joe Brandon got 41% of the yekubian-american demographic in '20

How Groups Voted in 2020 | Roper Center for Public Opinion ResearchRoper Centerropercenter.cornell.edu Demographic Group Biden Trump SEX Men 48 45 53 Women 52 57 42 RACE White 67 41

tbh think the national exit poll was basically junk in 20

Hillary won over 40% of all whites, but white men were over 65% trump and voted in higher numbers than usual. 40% is probably the floor, not the ceiling. A lot of rural states are 50-50, and just gerrymandered to heck, which affects turnout I suspect that Tester & Brown help turnout in MT & OH

she won 37% www.cnn.com/election/201...

2016 election results: Exit pollswww.cnn.com Full exit-poll data on how Americans voted, including by race, age, gender and education level.

I stand corrected. Over 43% of white women should have done it, since there’s usually higher turnout, but damn, did white dudes come out of the woodwork and basements and compounds to vote for Trump. Ugh. 😑

Biden has done more for rural people than anyone else has in recent history.

sure but you could’ve said the same about the previous dem presidents relative to the reps too

this is one half of the weirdness of polling in this cycle to me, and frankly the tougher one to explain (i.e., you explain Trump's strength with youngs/nonwhite ppl bc they never answer the phones at all; not as true with old white people)

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