George Pearkes: This poll is *wild* Head to head Biden wins under 35s by less than three points. He is up 15 points with 65+. A bunch of the other cross-tabs look basically plausible.

This poll is *wild* Head to head Biden wins under 35s by less than three points. He is up 15 points with 65+. A bunch of the other cross-tabs look basically plausible.

latest fox news national poll is the best Fox News for Biden since October www.foxnews.com/official-pol...

Biden is +5 in the suburbs (+19 with suburban women), +27 with “moderates” (self-ID), and wins 40% of rural whites. If you assume that under-35s are basically impossible to accurately poll in this era the guts of this thing spell an absolute collapse for Trump.

i mean put me down for doubt on him winning 40% of whites period, let alone rural ones

Same! Also no way he wins 65+ by double digits.

yeah if he does both of those things i will be in bed by my normal time and i will eat my hat for breakfast and post the video

Actually, I think this is plausible. Old folks are keener judges of mental versus physical decline. Biden could do very well with seniors.

He does if enough of the 61+ Trump voters died of COVID in the last 4 years

Only reason I could see him winning over maybe 5% (which is where I think he probably sits) is a combo of the "biden old and senile attacks" turning 65 and up off trump, and seeing roe get overturned finally getting them to realize that yes the GOP wants to kill Social Secuirty and Medicare.

lots of other polling has Biden strong with whites

sure but when was the last time a dem won 40% of rural whites? clinton? maybe carter? i don’t think we’ve won 40% of all whites since 08

(and even then barely - i think obama pulled 41 or something)

I mean, if you think there's nonwhite collapse and Biden is ~tied then white surge is the necessary corollary.

true but i’m skeptical of both tbh i *can* imagine biden improving with whites as he bottoms out in the rurals and winemomification continues

Has anybody done an estimate of how many people are going to flip their vote if these polls hold? It must an extraordinary number. 10% of 65+ year olds are going to vote not only for the opposite party they did last time, but literally the opposite person on the same ballot

Fwiw, Pew's analysis of validated voters says Biden won 43% of non-Hispanic Whites in 2020

Behind Biden’s 2020 Victorywww.pewresearch.org A new analysis of 2020 validated voters examines change and continuity in the electorate, both of which contributed to Joe Biden’s victory. It looks at how new voters and voters who turned out in eith...

ah fair enough. had not seen it but this i buy much more than the exit poll

ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-v... Based on this, Joe Brandon got 41% of the yekubian-american demographic in '20

How Groups Voted in 2020 | Roper Center for Public Opinion ResearchRoper Centerropercenter.cornell.edu Demographic Group Biden Trump SEX Men 48 45 53 Women 52 57 42 RACE White 67 41

tbh think the national exit poll was basically junk in 20

Hillary won over 40% of all whites, but white men were over 65% trump and voted in higher numbers than usual. 40% is probably the floor, not the ceiling. A lot of rural states are 50-50, and just gerrymandered to heck, which affects turnout I suspect that Tester & Brown help turnout in MT & OH

she won 37% www.cnn.com/election/201...

2016 election results: Exit pollswww.cnn.com Full exit-poll data on how Americans voted, including by race, age, gender and education level.

Biden has done more for rural people than anyone else has in recent history.

sure but you could’ve said the same about the previous dem presidents relative to the reps too

this is one half of the weirdness of polling in this cycle to me, and frankly the tougher one to explain (i.e., you explain Trump's strength with youngs/nonwhite ppl bc they never answer the phones at all; not as true with old white people)

you're thinking of white *males*

no i’m not

I want a reverse Reagan Bush map that we can put on a t shirt 40 years later

I am increasingly convinced that we seeing the same polling error as in 2020 that is cancelled out by a larger than 2020 polling error with young and POC (weighing??)

why do you put hope in my brain like this

The creature may die in a fit of rage election night when he is so thoroughly trounced that the fraud argument becomes absurd. (Not that 60 odd legal cases didn’t already prove this.)

Idk I think a Trump wipeout is probably pretty easy to spin into a stolen election narrative

Crosstabs cancel out I insist as I am slowly being turned into a NYT polling guy

Are AARP newsletters talking about how Republicans want to privatize Medicare? Because that’d make seniors +15 Biden. Seriously asking.

The youth will vote for the restoration of their student loans, just you watch

Looking at the trendline from the last three polls, then checking $DJT again...

hindsight's gonna burn the under 35s if trump wins...

I have friends here visiting from California. Both liberals, registered Democrats, both politically active and savvy. They're nervous about November. Biden's losing popularity with young voters due to his stance on Israel/Gaza, and they don't trust the polls. A LOT is riding on the first debate.

No one under 70 answers a political survey. Why are they still a thing?

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