surfingthepast.bsky.social

Profile banner

@surfingthepast.bsky.social

Avatar
It sounds like the pundits have too much time on their hands this summer. Like a teenager too old for camp can’t we find them something to do? Some menial but useful summer job like selling ice cream or cleaning out the grease traps?
Avatar
Mr Data says otherwise. But I’m sure you have personal first hand knowledge of “most people.”
Avatar
He can’t resign the presidency that would not only look very weak but would put Mike Johnson next in line.
Avatar
I hope it pays well at least.
Avatar
Ironically this past year or so is one if the few times wages have exceeded inflation. I’d say real wages have been pretty flat for twenty plus years. But people didn’t know enough to complain about inflation then because they were told it was so low.
Avatar
Low inflation is great if you are living on investments or are in the top 10% where incomes are rising. But “low” inflation isn’t low no matter how small the number if it’s still higher than your wages.
Avatar
There are several markets where owning a house is difficult even for the upper middle class. NY, LA, SF, DC. This is true now. And it was true 20 years ago. But there are many many places where this is not true.
Avatar
I say let’s just do a cage match.
Avatar
Well that can’t happen for five years. So plenty of time to do good stuff. Eventually governments change but with a massive victory like this it can easily be a decade or more.
Avatar
I think a new VP has to be approved by Congress
Avatar
At least they are moving in the right direction, whereas we are moving in the radical far right direction
Avatar
How long before Iran is more democratic and less theocratic than the United States,
Avatar
Are you a Putin troll bot?
Avatar
True. But I heard Biden spoke a sentence that didn’t match subject and verb in his interview so the media better focus all attention on that.
Avatar
And you think a last minute sub is going to defeat Trump? See above about Hail Marys
Avatar
In the modern world it seems naive to think what we perceive and how we perceive it comes to us somehow unmediated.
Avatar
So your entire argument is she has some qualifications? As though that settles it? As though those who have shot her down don’t have as many or more qualifications?
Avatar
That’s totally reasonable. If I thought that would make a difference I’d totally support it. I’m not convinced it will improve the odds though
Avatar
It’s all retconning now. “See I knew Biden was going to perform badly in the debate so Harris would have to step in but four years ago Biden failed to prepare Harris for this moment.”
Avatar
It was a bad debate but so what it’s one data point. Only fear and irrationality lead one to abandon a previously held position on such limited evidence.
Avatar
Because early July polls are 100% accurate! Nate Silver had one good insight. A candidate with a 25% chance has a totally good chance of winning. That’s what polls can tell us even WHEN your candidate’s numbers don’t improve. Let alone when they do.
Avatar
Don’t worry polls showed Hilary beating Trump by double digits less than two weeks before the election. Also Kerry was crushing Bush in early September. So what the polls say now are totally predictive of what will happen in November.
Avatar
But it’s clear that who can get there? Desperate Hail Marys when you are behind are sure losers.
Avatar
And he does abandoning Biden help? How can people be so clueless as to not ask that basic question. If a substitute candidate doesn’t improve the odds but does cost time, money and disarray why would you do it?
Avatar
Folks get real. Changing candidates doesn’t move the needle an inch. Except it might move it closer to Trump. There no saviors out there. Get behind your candidate and stop undermining. Make the case for the Democrats. Otherwise you are just helping Trump
Avatar
Yes and as soon as he’s replace after months of division, legal struggles over the ballots, difficult to impossible transfers of funds the polls will magically reverse for the Democrats. So simple.
Avatar
Avatar
The press has published literally thousands of articles on Biden’s age leading up to the debate. And then you saw what you had been prepared to see and panicked. But please tell who can do “better?” Because better for the chattering class means fits their fiction on what they think a president…
Avatar
..should look and sound like. Versus better as in better chance of winning election. The second is the only thing that matters. When you’ve got a realistic alternative let me know.
Avatar