Taniel

@taniel.bsky.social

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Daniel Nichanian. Editor in chief of @bolts.bsky.social

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Explosive reporting in Le Monde confirms what was apparent all week: Macron resisted the emergence of anti-far-right front after round 1. His PM, Attal, forced it as a fait accompli, & pressured for drop outs to block RN. Even then, Macron made some phone calls to undercut it.

Législatives 2024 : entre l’Elysée et Matignon, tensions sur le front républicainwww.lemonde.fr L’attitude à tenir face à la montée de l’extrême droite a profondément divisé Emmanuel Macron et Gabriel Attal. Leurs stratégies, parfois contraires, se sont parasitées avant le second tour des électi...

I’ve been critical of Attal and his rhetoric over the last 3.5 weeks: but if the RN loses on Sunday, he should be remembered as the one in the Macronist bloc who maneuvered to avoid the president’s bonkers gamble result in a far-right government.

Reply to

Devon Paul

I don’t see how NFP governs as a whole even if they are biggest group with something like 180. … They’d need Macronists, and LFI and Macron don’t mix.

3 French polls out today…: Seat projections have: —Far-right (RN) 170 to 230 —Left 145 to 185 —Macronists 118 to 150 So: —Anti-RN front working better than expected, lowering RN. —Especially among left voters, which is saving Macronists. —New chance RN isn’t biggest group?

To translate more bluntly: —Macron called snap elections to benefit from what he thought would be left disunity & make them lose their seats. —Didn’t happen, threatening Macron with < 100 seats. —Left now rallying to Macronists where that’s how you beat RN, making his #s rise.

Green Party had only ever won one seat in any UK election. It’s winning 4 today — a feat in first past the poll system — while being on track to win 7% of the overall vote.

Clarification: I meant in any past parliamentary election. With more than 90% of seats now attributed, the Greens have won as many seats as Reform UK.

It’s official: the majority of the UK House of Commons has now been called for Labour, ending 14-year of Tory rule.

Jeremy Corbyn has won his seat against Labour. George Galloway has lost his seat.

JUST IN: Labour heading toward a landslide victory in the UK. This is their return to power, for the first time since 2010. National exit poll, released moments ago, shows them above 400 seats. The ruling conservatives projected at 131, which would be their lowest since WWII.

I meant to attach this from the BBC

Results per constituencies will start in coming hours—but the bulk will take a while to come. In the meantime, instead of sitting idly, here’s everything you’ve wanted to know about how voting works in the UK but were afraid to ask: boltsmag.org/how-voting-w...

How Voting Works in the U.K. and France: Your Questions Answeredboltsmag.org On the eve of the French and British elections, <i>Bolts</i> responds to 10 reader questions on how they differ from the U.S. on voter registration, disenfranchisement, proxy voting, and more.

The reveal of the UK exit poll on Sky TV led to a lot of, um, exclamations . I don’t know how to embed a video here so I’m going to exceptionally link to the other site because it’s worth it— x.com/taniel/statu...

x.comx.com

Reply to

Nathaniel Rakich

France exit polls are quite different than in the Us, I believe in Uk too!

Reposted by

Taniel

The U.K. is voting tomorrow. But how do these elections work? Can you vote by mail? Can you vote from prison, or if you live outside of the country? You asked, we answered: boltsmag.org/how-voting-w...

Wisconsin judge just struck down parts of Act 10. This is the anti-labor law that Scott Walker championed in 2011, rocking Wisconsin politics and prompting recalls and national attention: www.jsonline.com/story/news/p...

Dane County judge strikes down elements of Wisconsin's Act 10 law that curbed public unionswww.jsonline.com The Scott Walker era law sparked massive protests and reshaped Wisconsin's political landscape.

Reply to

Silly B Man

🤷‍♂️ clearly no one knows

Reposted by

Taniel

Whoa.

Someone asked us... how does the malapportionment of districts in France and the UK compares to that in the US? The answer in both countries is quite breathtaking. boltsmag.org/how-voting-w...

Reposted by

Taniel

I have absolutely no envy for anybody who strives to provide a cogent and accurate explanation of French politics but good on Taniel for attempting it [complimentary]

I think I need to cogitate on what’ll likely be a complex task on Sunday: how to explain on here why the French center-right is going to treat the Communist Party as a non-far-left force with which it CAN form a national unity gov, but not the LFI party (also part of left bloc).

Reply to

luckybelle.bsky.social

Oh, that’s most appreciated!!! Thanks for reading

Reply to

JW Mason

Thanks for reading! We tried to answer a lot of questions in here boltsmag.org/how-voting-w...

Reply to

bunghole.bsky.social

I did a seat by seat prediction yesterday and ended up in that range.

This may be key to understand who is going to govern France come next week… it doesn’t get any easier!

Someone asked us... how does the malapportionment of districts in France and the UK compares to that in the US? The answer in both countries is quite breathtaking. boltsmag.org/how-voting-w...

Reposted by

Taniel

Great roundtable in @bolts.bsky.social about the consequences of the Supreme Court's recent ruling on homelessness. This ruling "was designed explicitly to be cruel to people experiencing homelessness." boltsmag.org/grants-pass-...

“Designed to be Cruel”: How Grants Pass Will Ramp Up the Policing of Homelessnessboltsmag.org The Supreme Court blessed bans on sleeping outdoors. In a <i>Bolts</i> roundtable, three experts explain that this may encourage aggressive policing over long-term housing solutions.

Reply to

PenguinGuy

If it really was all or near all on both sides, that'd make plunge the RN 'only' win something like... 140 seats maybe? But such perfect or even near perfect vote transfers is just VERY unrealistic. It's just not happening.

Reposted by

Taniel

the conservative theory of law in one headline

Reposted by

Taniel

NEW: France and the U.K. are on the cusp of major elections, so we asked you to send us your questions on how voting works in these two countries. We chose 10 to answer — learn about runoffs, gerrymandering, registration, and much more.

Reposted by

Taniel

You don't say... Who will be the disproportionate targets AGAIN, Black people esp Black men who make up 40% of the houseless? boltsmag.org/grants-pass-...