I don't think there's much more to glean about the race until the conventions. Because this is a rematch and because both candidates are unpopular, people seem more tuned out than at any time since the turn of the millennium. We see this in cratering political media ratings.
I suspect a fair amount will tune in to see the train wreck, then quickly drop when (if) that doesn't materialize in the first 10 minutes. But it's going to be lower than 2020 for sure.
It will be very difficult to hide if Trump's brain is actually as cooked as I think it is. Biden may mangle a couple of words but can speak an extemporaneous complete sentence.
He might be able to do that IF Biden doesn't take any jabs at him.
If Biden actually LANDS a jab (easy to do with someone so thin-skinned and insecure (from a lifetime of pretending to be much wealthier than he is) Trump won't be able to help himself.
One thing the Biden campaign has definitely leaned into this time around is getting under Trump's skin. In fact, I think the whole reason these debates got scheduled is they successfully played his ego.
Biden's gonna call him a "loser" and I'll be amazed if Trump keeps his cool.
The one thing I've known since the 90s is Biden is a good politician. A big part of being good at politics is knowing what the audience likes, and the opposition doesn't.
"Uncle Joe" was a bit of schtick, but they kept it up because it works.
I never expected Trump to bite, but knew Joe would try
Oh, but he's gonna WANT to rant about Sleepy Joe Biden and Hunter and the laptop and how you just can't flush your turds any more, folks, and it's because of "woke."
Politico says, "Jake Tapper and Dana Bash will moderate the first 2024 presidential debate between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump next month." One of those two people will do a really good job.
I've somehow worn the wrong type of grooves in my brain where I can usually find Trump intelligible. I understand the info he's trying to convey from when it entered his brain and how he's mangled it. He's not quite as cooked as I think some people try to paint.
Though, my assessment of his baseline is, I think, lower. He's always talked like an idiot.
His biggest problem is he's been marinating in what are essentially conspiarcy theories, centered on himself and his legal problems, that he's lost all ability to connect in a way anyone understands.
On the other hand they've been doing the thing where Joe Biden proving himself to be a fully alive and cognizant human being will drastically exceed expectations, again
Yeah, he speaks fluent median voter which drives people who know how government is supposed to work nuts. His biggest liability is how he's so fixated on how he, personally, is getting screwed vs 8 years ago.
I mean I could always understand him fine. My great-aunt was Queens as hell, and he has a similar accent. But he's getting a lot more mushy lately, and I also think he is perceptibly tired.
Of course there are chemical solutions for that, but.
yeah but the possibility that one of those breakdowns is going to be inherently more clipworthy than the other is a real one, and would probably prove decisive.
One of them will refer to the French president as "macaron" before quickly correcting himself, and the other will spend ten minutes talking about how you salmon are gay now because of woke
I think there are two possibilities - one is "Biden coherent, Trump not", the other is "two old men yelling".
SOTU and some sit downs are reasons to believe it'll be door #1; the TIME interview is a reason to believe door #2.
