Chris Wyman: I don't think there's much more to glean about the race until the conventions. Because this is a rematch and because both candidates are unpopular, people seem more tuned out than at any time since the turn of the millennium. We see this in cratering political media ratings.

I don't think there's much more to glean about the race until the conventions. Because this is a rematch and because both candidates are unpopular, people seem more tuned out than at any time since the turn of the millennium. We see this in cratering political media ratings.

And frankly I think the normies have this right. I'm not obsessing over the news cycle. I've got more important things to worry about in my life than nanosecond outrages and controversies.

it's the same two guys / NOOO I HAVE TO TRACK EVERY MOMENT OF THE MOST IMPORTANT ELECTION OF OUR LIVES / it's the same two guys

there are two major upcoming events before then- debate, Trump sentencing- that I think could matter

also I sort of don’t think anyone’s going to watch the RNC or, probably, the DNC unless things go off the rails

Could be a lot of spectacle at the RNC unless Lara Trump has taken all the money.

Depends a lot on the media coverage, especially on the debate. I can see sentencing mattering if it's surprisingly harsh though. We'll see soon.

have my doubts about the debate making much difference UNLESS someone has a complete breakdown in a way that the camera captures

I strongly suspect it will be the least-watched presidential debate in history.

I suspect a fair amount will tune in to see the train wreck, then quickly drop when (if) that doesn't materialize in the first 10 minutes. But it's going to be lower than 2020 for sure.

everyone on both sides is going to claim the other guy had such a breakdown

It will be very difficult to hide if Trump's brain is actually as cooked as I think it is. Biden may mangle a couple of words but can speak an extemporaneous complete sentence.

I've somehow worn the wrong type of grooves in my brain where I can usually find Trump intelligible. I understand the info he's trying to convey from when it entered his brain and how he's mangled it. He's not quite as cooked as I think some people try to paint.

Though, my assessment of his baseline is, I think, lower. He's always talked like an idiot. His biggest problem is he's been marinating in what are essentially conspiarcy theories, centered on himself and his legal problems, that he's lost all ability to connect in a way anyone understands.

I mean I could always understand him fine. My great-aunt was Queens as hell, and he has a similar accent. But he's getting a lot more mushy lately, and I also think he is perceptibly tired. Of course there are chemical solutions for that, but.

i feel like the trump team will try to keep him on a dozen scripted answers and he could well manage it

He might be able to do that IF Biden doesn't take any jabs at him. If Biden actually LANDS a jab (easy to do with someone so thin-skinned and insecure (from a lifetime of pretending to be much wealthier than he is) Trump won't be able to help himself.

Oh, but he's gonna WANT to rant about Sleepy Joe Biden and Hunter and the laptop and how you just can't flush your turds any more, folks, and it's because of "woke."

Might depend a lot on the moderator

yeah but the possibility that one of those breakdowns is going to be inherently more clipworthy than the other is a real one, and would probably prove decisive.

Alternately the Trump people are gonna pull up on some dumbass excuse in the next week or two

right right "can't debate against a sleazy opponent who insists on namecalling in his ads"

One of them will refer to the French president as "macaron" before quickly correcting himself, and the other will spend ten minutes talking about how you salmon are gay now because of woke

I think there are two possibilities - one is "Biden coherent, Trump not", the other is "two old men yelling". SOTU and some sit downs are reasons to believe it'll be door #1; the TIME interview is a reason to believe door #2.

I guess "they're both old but Trump is nuts" is possible.

I think most of the same people who would vote for him even with his convictions are people who would vote for him if he's in jail.

reeeeaaaally looking forward to that sentencing

Call me a dreamer, but I keep imagining a 3 month sentence, no delays, report right to processing. Outside of poorly recorded telephone interviews (that he had to call collect) we’re spared 3 months of Trump & he’ll probably leave Rikers in early October having aged a few years in there

Post