Aaron Sojourner

@aaronsojourner.org

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#Labor #economics @upjohninstitute.bsky.social • Brookings nonresident fellow • former senior economist for labor at White House CEA • living in Minneapolis. Views mine.

aaronsojourner.org

Be kind • Work hard • Have fun

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Aaron Sojourner

July 7, 2020 As the pandemic continues to rage, Trump announces the United States is withdrawing from the World Health Organization. Candidate Joe Biden promises to immediately reverse this if elected. (He did, in his first hours in office.)

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Aaron Sojourner

Biked 23.85 miles and got some pretty pics of Minneapolis!

www.nature.org/en-us/about-... HT @theredprince.bsky.social

A Decade for Policy Deliverywww.nature.org Recently passed federal legislation represents the largest investment in climate action ever. Now, we have less than a decade to put this funding into action.

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Aaron Sojourner

bsky.app/profile/tani...

OH, a big result: Marine Le Pen's *sister* has LOST her bid to join Parliament. She led 40% to 26% in Round 1. Her left opponent won by 0.5%. (Macronist, who came in 3rd, initially said she wouldn't drop out but then changed her mind. Ended up blocking Le Pen.)

bsky.app/profile/tani...

What could have happened today if more candidates who came in 3rd had refused to drop out? Hint of an answer in the city of Aix. Here, the Macronist candidate refused to drop out. As a result, no front vs the far-right. Result: RN wins with 37%. Left at 36%. Macronists 27%.

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Aaron Sojourner

So what’s now, you ask? The NFP doesn’t have a majority, but holds the largest number of seats. So, it’ll need to cobble together enough seats to reach 298. That means NFP will have to negotiate with Div.G & Ensemble to form a coalition & governing majority. There will be a LOT of horse-trading

#France: The coalition of Left did very well. I predicted they’d become the 2nd largest group in the parliament, I was wrong. They are the 1st group now with between 172-192 seats. It’s a cohabitation scenario, & Macron will have to share power with NFP. Big question: will Mélenchon be the next PM?

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Aaron Sojourner

And speaking of Baltimore, I'm sure my followers are waiting on pins and needles for my latest update on our astonishing fall in homicides. The wait is over! 😏

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Aaron Sojourner

I find the literature studying the economic effects of narratives so fascinating. This new working paper shows that narratives explained 1/5 of the output variance during the Great Recession! www.nber.org/papers/w32602 #EconSky #MonitoringEconomics

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Aaron Sojourner

I will bang this drum forever: in THEY THOUGHT THEY WERE FREE: THE GERMANS, 1933-45 Milton Mayer interviewed 10 ordinary Germans after WW2 to learn how fascism took hold. There was never a moment when everyone woke up:

if you’re waiting for everyone around you to wake up, you’ll wait forever. this is how the people grinding our bones to make their bread WANT you to be. paralyzed, alienated & purposeless

Reply to

Elizabeth Weber Handwerker

Thanks, Elizabeth! cc @ginatb2.bsky.social

Reply to

Grace Hill

Thanks! cc @ginatb2.bsky.social

Help us out, here, please.

Aaron, any data/stats on Green jobs? Photovoltaics, specifically?

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Aaron Sojourner

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Aaron Sojourner

Aaron, any data/stats on Green jobs? Photovoltaics, specifically?

That's a great question and I don't know the best sources. Here's one covering through 2023. www.energy.gov/policy/us-en...

U.S. Energy & Employment Jobs Report (USEER)www.energy.gov The landing page for U.S. Energy & Employment Jobs Report (USEER).

Would love to see this in the USA too. What share of employment do you think is in: - coal mining? - oil & gas extraction? Answers below.

This @theausinstitute.bsky.social survey illustrates kind of perfectly why the fossil fuel industry spends so much marketing spend talking about jobs, economics and how dependent government revenue is on fossil fuels. australiainstitute.org.au/wp-content/u...

this.im

Coal mining: 0.03% Oil & gas extraction: 0.08%

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Aaron Sojourner

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Aaron Sojourner

Listen to @aaronsojourner.org. Elections matter for our lives and livelihoods. Vibes shouldn't count, but do. So, it is on everyone to show the difference between the two candidates. They have shown us who they are and what they will do.

Our progress on clean energy scale up has been remarkable. More to do but big steps in the right direction. Check out the thread. Your claim there's no meaningful difference is mistaken. bsky.app/profile/aaro...

spectrum.ieee.org/shipt

Shipt’s Pay Algorithm Squeezed Gig Workers. They Fought Backspectrum.ieee.org Shipt, the shopping and delivery service, changed its payment algorithm in 2020, but didn’t inform its gig workers. The workers realized that their pay had become unpredictable and banded together to ...

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Asawin Suebsaeng

☝️Shot / Chaser👇 www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020...

Reply to

Steve Cicala

I was thinking about it more as reducing US oil demand by expanding alternative supply. There's no change in geopolitical constraints if we reduce demand and substitute toward more clean-energy production?

Tho clearly not the primary reason to shift to clean energy. I mainly wanted to use the "Independence" Day rhetorical hook.

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Aaron Sojourner

Fun fact: Back in 2022, the FOMC was widely derided for predicting only a small rise in unemployment with core inflation rapidly falling. Those projections turn out to have been almost exactly right. www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypoli...

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Steve Cicala

Domestic production. I'm not an expert here but taking a broad political consensus as given. My sense is it's disempowering & decoupling from OPEC states, Putin, MBS, Maduro... bcz many authoritarian leaders use control of fossil fuels for political power & dependence creates undesirable constraints

Also supply chain resilience in the face of production shocks from climate change, geopolitical turmoil...

Name calling, yawn.

Reply to

Gina

Big differences. www.axios.com/2024/05/10/t...

5 big differences. www.nytimes.com/2024/04/26/c...

Five Major Climate Policies Trump Would Probably Reverse if Electedwww.nytimes.com He has called for increased oil production and said that electric vehicles will result in an ‘assassination’ of jobs.

Reply to

Aaron Sojourner

There are many possible criticisms of the administration's energy and climate policies, different policies we might prefer or wish they'd gone further. But the claim there's no difference between the candidates is mistaken.

Big difference. www.politico.com/news/2024/06...