Here’s why Biden is toast: in this situation, any candidate in Biden’s shoes would do a series of events (interviews, press conferences, town halls, etc) to prove they are up to the task.
But, Biden isn’t doing that because he can’t. He’s not capable—and that’s not going to change.
I think when half your campaign and party leaders are leaking to the press that they're shitting bricks, and you're not putting it to bed with some urgency, there's a problem that's a lot bigger than a few folks on social media thinking the sky is falling
One blue dog said Trump would win but still backs him, one crazy House D called on him to resign, and Pelosi said something ambiguous. What other actual concrete statements have been made?
“Joe had a bad night, but he’s still our guy, now let’s talk about Trump’s fascism” should have been the unified message, repeated constantly, and that kind of coordination needed to come from the campaign within hours. Instead, we were left with scattered statements, some ambiguous.
If you can’t reassure Nancy Pelosi enough to get her to say something non-ambiguous (the president still hasn’t called her!), then it becomes a campaign issue, not just a media issue. Playing the media is part of comms.
Right. If folks want to say it's overblown, go for it. But the concerns here are plainly real, and plainly coming from a lot of folks who are concerned /because they are terrified of Trump winning/, not just trying to kneecap Biden or quietly pro-Trump folks, or a bit of a social media freakout
Part of the job is being party leader, and that's gone and it's not coming back. The party is practically in open revolt against him and, perhaps even more justified, his abysmal team. Right or wrong, that's what's happening. It has snowballed incredibly quickly and will only continue to ratchet up.
Yes. And ... not just in the wider party. Staff! Senior staff! *Current* staff! Like, sure, they're not putting their names on it in the newspapers because doing that is resigning, but I think folks are missing that this is very much not just a little social media storm. It's actually pretty serious
Over the space of about 72 hours we've gone from "that was bad but no way he drops out" to "eh, maybe a small chance, this isn't looking good" to "oh wow this might really be happening" to "it's very likely happening, should he also resign? And also it's Harris, stop fooling around about that."
The time between now and the DNC is roughly the same amount of time the UK had for its *entire* election season. It sucks, and I absolutely do not minimize the difficulty in climbing this mountain, to drop your candidate, but there *is* time if they do it now, but not time to delay it much further
four months to galvanize a party that's the political equivalent of herding cats behind an entirely new candidate would require uncharacteristic levels of unity, strategy and messaging competency and I understand completely why strategists aren't keen for it with fascism on the line
Is there any reason to think that the Dem's aren't simply going to pop open a Pandora's box of back-biting, sniping, etc., that further alienates large components of the base from whoever the winner is?
Is Harris really a shoe-in nominee with a purely formal round of approvals?
Or is asking wrong?
There is no shoo-in based on polling. The question is who has the most upside and least downside. And Biden isn’t making the case that it’s him when his downsides are all considerable and not getting better.
My take is he has to serve the remainder of this presidency, drop off fall ticket, kamala becomes top of ticket with another tbd dem as veep. Succession can’t be messed with so he can’t resign, we won’t get another veep and we’ll still have to fight like hell against Heritage to stay on 50 ballots.
I know people were pointing to Clyburn as being misquoted but he could have easily said, “It’s Biden. Stop with that.” Instead he said, “It’s Biden. Or Harris if he steps down.” You don’t say the “or” if you don’t want that to be the headline.
if someone ends up going to Biden and saying, Joe, I love you but you simply don't have the confidence of the party, it's time to go
that someone is quite likely to be Jim Clyburn
he does that and the story could be that Biden’s being propped up (possibly literally) for the sake of infighting and doesn’t have the ability to make the decision himself
I've asked this of others, and now ask it of both of you going back and forth:
What is a concrete thing that could happen, and a deadline by which it definitively either will or will not happen, that would be sufficient evidence for you to admit you're wrong?
This month, but that would be on if Biden just digs in his heels and refuses no matter how bad it gets. Doesn't change the point about how bad it already is and how unprecedented this degree of Dems signaling they want to do it is.
Like, just got to be blunt here: if the message is not getting through to the voting public, then there is a problem. Everything else is just how to get there
Being equally blunt: we've seen no polling results to suggest that the round-the-clock panicked screaming BIDEN MUST GO BIDEN MUST GO BIDEN MUST GO is getting through to the voting public. Poll numbers are barely moving!
Which seems a flimsy basis for ditching a candidate.
We are starting to see polling. It's hurt him, he is down since the debate, and it's a noticeable trend in a very short amount of time. And yes you can cherry pick some that show him flat or little difference, or say well he's not down by 20 yet. But the trend is negative and not insubstantial.
So what you're saying is that if I can find a poll and a moment in time when that poll gains, say, 2 points in favor of Biden you'd call for him to stay in and Trump to drop and be replaced?
In previous US election cycles did you advocate for a major party candidate to drop out and be replaced, if they were trailing in the YouGov poll in the second week of July?
Why this poll and this time?
They matter enormously! They are the difference between two Poasters jerking each other off in the replies and two people making actual falsifiable arguments with their reputations on the line.
That's just two different ways of saying "two Poasters jerking each other off in the replies"
That you think you're doing it with your respectable jerkin' coat on doesn't really mean anyone's going to go to Journalism Jail if they're wrong
It would be a substantial point in his favor if he at least had been polling better earlier in the race and thus it'd be a bit more plausible he might bounce back.
I've thought that Biden should drop for a while. This *was* his chance to convince otherwise, and he failed. Out of time. Too important for infinite chances
