This poll is *wild*
Head to head Biden wins under 35s by less than three points. He is up 15 points with 65+.
A bunch of the other cross-tabs look basically plausible.
Biden is +5 in the suburbs (+19 with suburban women), +27 with “moderates” (self-ID), and wins 40% of rural whites. If you assume that under-35s are basically impossible to accurately poll in this era the guts of this thing spell an absolute collapse for Trump.
so a 30-point swing by gender? that's insane, and like everything in Trump-era politics I'm wondering if it's a Trump effect or a broader (likely Dobbs-based) one.
I wonder about the long-term effects of that trend. I had assumed it ~mostly washed out on a personal level because of geographic sorting, but a 30-point swing is nuts. Especially with the parties also being very polarized.
That gap sounds right. White women are evenly divided and women of color are Dems.
Maybe 40% of Latino men and 15% of Black men (ceilings) vote republican.
Most Asian Americans vote democratic, and while the GOP has tried to use immigration and business ownership as a wedge, their robes show.
It’s why Republicans have to get conservative whites to turnout in such large numbers.
White men overwhelmingly vote republican and there’s more of them in the electorate, but they’re low propensity voters, which explains a lot of the gap.