JUST IN: Polls closed in first round of France elections. Two main French TV estimates (combines early results & exit poll) show strong far-right.
Far-right bloc: ≈34%
Left bloc: ≈28-29%
Macron bloc: ≈20-22%
What does this mean? What'll happen? Follow this thread ⬇️
Both estimates project that far-right will dominate the upcoming National Assembly — falling short so far of absolute majority, but not unattainable next week.
Left bloc projected 2nd. Macron's bloc, to collapse < 100 seats.
NOTE: This is projections of what'd happen NEXT WEEK.
BIG TAKEAWAY: Far-right (RN) ahead, but can it win enough runoffs to win next week?
In most places there'll be *3-way runoffs* instead of 2-way runoffs. If no one drops out, it'll greatly help RN.
Macronists often 3rd, so all eyes on them right now. Will they drop out when so?
Leader of the PS (left bloc member) just spoke. He said:
Whenever PS candidate is in runoff & in 3rd place, & far-right can win, their candidate will drop out to block far-right.
Will Macronists? Bayrou, a Macronist leader, just tied himself in knots to say nothing precise.
NEWS: Melenchon, left leader of LFI, just said his priority will be to block far-right in runoff. He says his party will drop out from runoff if RN is 1st & LFI is 3rd.
So: all left parties will have this approach—drop out to block far-right.
Macronists haven't followed this.
NEWS: Les Républicains, the conservative party that's now a distant 4th & are eliminated most places, just said they WON'T give any recommendation for runoffs.
(When Sarkozy switched them to this position in 2015, it was hugely controversial. Now, very expected.)
DISTRICT RESULTS:
—Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right, WINS reelection in her northern district in the first round. She topped 50% & won't need a runoff.
—Francois Hollande, former center-left president, is first in 1st round. Likely goes to 3-way runoff against RN & LR.
Results are in from many districts in north of France, where the far-right (RN) is very strong.
RN has already flipped one seat—without even needing a runoff.
And many RN incumbents who won for 1st time in 2022, often in surprises, just topped 50% & have already won without
Results are flashing district by district on French TV. At this hour, more rural districts are the ones reporting—so that affects what we're seeing.
Even with that caveat, RN numbers are so startlingly high. Places where RN was at 30-40% two years ago, now above 50% or close.
Edouard Phillippe, Macron’s 1st PM, just said:
Where Macronists are not in runoff, people should vote for a candidate of Left bloc, *if* that candidate is center-left (so PS+Green, not LFI).
Said his candidates shld drop out if in 3rd place, behind such center-left candidates.
Here's where we are
—Far-right strong. Will they win a majority next week? Will depend in part of what rival blocs do.
—Left says they'll coalesce around Macronists where they're 3rd. For Macronists, it'll depend; different ppl singing different tunes.
Next 44 hours decisive as candidates file.
I presume anyone who follows me know this, but: Macron called elections 3 years early, for no clear reason. Even his cabinet didn't know until 1-2 hours before he announced it.
Now far-right on brink of power, & his party is poised to lose at least half its seats.
Fascinating RESULTS in from 1st district in Correze, featuring former center-left President Francois Hollande.
Currently held by the conservatives, LR.
Left (Hollande) 38%
Far-right: 31%
LR: 29%
(Other 3%.)
NEW: Gabriel Attal, Macron’s current PM, spoke.
He sounded different, clearer, than earlier Macronists: We must “do everything” to block far-right.
He says Macronists should drop out where it helps (unclear if everywhere). Says left no longer can have absolute majority & threat is RN
An example of how important runoff decisions are.
Marie-Caroline Le Pen, Marine Le Pen's sister, is first in her district with 40%.
Left bloc: 25.94%. Macronist candidate: 25.88%.
All 3 can advance to runoff. Unimaginable Le Pen loses unless a (the 3rd) candidate drops out.
Recapping:
—Great night for far-right. Big surges all around France. Can win next week, but nothing certain.
—Left bloc 2nd. But not great for them: stable since 2022, not what they need to win overall.
—Macronists 3rd, will fall A LOT. But got just enough to still make many runoffs.
A new tune is emerging on TV in past hour: Several Macron spokespeople clearly signal they'll try for their bloc to ally with center-left MPs (from PS) & conservative MPs (from LR) to form some sort of governing coalition. (That'd involve left bloc splitting.)
Important development: A member of Macron's Cabinet, who won this Marseille seat in 2022, came in 3rd today behind the far-right & the left.
She advanced to runoff, but she just announced she'll drop out to help block far-right.
(Still, may be hard: far-right already at 45%.)
One of far-right's strongest areas: the Pas-de-Calais, in the north. They won 6 of 12 districts in 2022.
Today? They've already won as many today in the first round, without even needing a runoff.
And they're STRONGLY favored to win the other 6 in the runoffs. Sweep likely.
A big Macronist defeat (& Left gain) in Paris: Socialist Emmanuel Grégoire (the chief deputy, and also rival, of Mayor Anne Hidalgo) has won outright in the first round.
He ousts the 2022 winner, Macronist Clement Beaune (who was in Macron's cabinet until recently).
EXTREMELY strong results for far-right in the Provence + Cote d'Azur area.
Yes, far-right will likely lose a handful of these districts where it's up here (IF runoffs consolidate), say in Marseille or Aix, maybe 1 in Nice.
But it'll come close to a sweep throughout otherwise.
All ballots in: NATIONAL RESULTS across all French districts.
—Far-right bloc (RN + Ciotti candidates): 33.15%
—Left bloc (Nouveau Front Populaire): 28.0%
—Macron bloc: 20.0%
—Conservative Party (LR): 6.6%
(Other right: ≈5%. Other left: ≈3%.)
Macronists need to get on-board with blocking the far right at all costs.
With fascists ascendant the world over, difficult not to feel as if humankind is giving up/imploding
He didn't. The voters did. Maybe it's time to understand what the reasons are for voters switching to the RN, and determine how their governance needs can be met by centrist parties.
