JUST IN: Polls closed in first round of France elections. Two main French TV estimates (combines early results & exit poll) show strong far-right.
Far-right bloc: ≈34%
Left bloc: ≈28-29%
Macron bloc: ≈20-22%
What does this mean? What'll happen? Follow this thread ⬇️
Both estimates project that far-right will dominate the upcoming National Assembly — falling short so far of absolute majority, but not unattainable next week.
Left bloc projected 2nd. Macron's bloc, to collapse < 100 seats.
NOTE: This is projections of what'd happen NEXT WEEK.
BIG TAKEAWAY: Far-right (RN) ahead, but can it win enough runoffs to win next week?
In most places there'll be *3-way runoffs* instead of 2-way runoffs. If no one drops out, it'll greatly help RN.
Macronists often 3rd, so all eyes on them right now. Will they drop out when so?
Leader of the PS (left bloc member) just spoke. He said:
Whenever PS candidate is in runoff & in 3rd place, & far-right can win, their candidate will drop out to block far-right.
Will Macronists? Bayrou, a Macronist leader, just tied himself in knots to say nothing precise.
NEWS: Melenchon, left leader of LFI, just said his priority will be to block far-right in runoff. He says his party will drop out from runoff if RN is 1st & LFI is 3rd.
So: all left parties will have this approach—drop out to block far-right.
Macronists haven't followed this.
NEWS: Les Républicains, the conservative party that's now a distant 4th & are eliminated most places, just said they WON'T give any recommendation for runoffs.
(When Sarkozy switched them to this position in 2015, it was hugely controversial. Now, very expected.)
DISTRICT RESULTS:
—Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right, WINS reelection in her northern district in the first round. She topped 50% & won't need a runoff.
—Francois Hollande, former center-left president, is first in 1st round. Likely goes to 3-way runoff against RN & LR.
Results are in from many districts in north of France, where the far-right (RN) is very strong.
RN has already flipped one seat—without even needing a runoff.
And many RN incumbents who won for 1st time in 2022, often in surprises, just topped 50% & have already won without
So in nutshell this thing is basically at a point where the only hope of beating the far right is Macron's party gets third and decides to drop out and enough people who voted for him go to the number 2 in the run off to beat Le Pen n friends?
Not quite. Macron has called for standing with "Democratic and Républicain" candidates against RN. Translation: vote against RN and LFI candidates, ie his party or popular front if that's not an LFI candidate. That's the only coherent stance.
Sounds grimly familiar. It's conspicuous (at least to an American) that the left is not doing that now; I don't have the background to say anything at all about whether that's an accurate description of the past.
