here’s a fucking marker: biden does not step down, trump loses. make your arguments against it, but that’s the baseline you would expect if you don’t read the times and the atlantic writers shitting their pants in public. show your work, and i will show mine.
how does the RNC mobilize? what votes does trump get this year that he didn’t get in 2020? where does trump get *new* votes, and does he take them from biden, and how?
The goal is to demoralise, distract, deflect and bully places like the NYT to help you do it.
I don't think it will work when you still have a remarkable chunk of voters ready to vote for a dead body over Trump
And, hey! Most normies don't pay attention to the horse race. Press protest too much
Two areas of concern, as examples:
GA was blue in 2020. Polling that year was within margin of error all year. This year, it's consistently +6 Trump.
Many states have voting law changes, and in NC we have voter ID requirements which tends to depress Democratic votes.
How Trump won in 2016: here’s the map colored by which candidate actually won 50% of the vote in that state. A lot of unshaded on there and the only ones that switched in his favor (while dropping Georgia) for 2020 were Florida and Utah, and Utah was a weird oneoff anyway
No, not at all. But I think the idea that people will vote for anyone who isn’t Trump isn’t exactly the case. We all saw how a big group of Bernie Sanders voters took their balls and went home in 2016 when their candidate didn’t win. I’m worried that various disgruntled people will stay home.
IF you believe the polls (plenty of good reasons to think they're junk), there's a lot of completely non-politically activated people pissed about higher prices and are willing to vote for Trump based entirely on that. I really hope that's not true because it's extremely dangerous and also sad.
when you start asking questions about the fucking boogeyman the fucking boogeyman loses his power. candyman isn’t real. NYT columnists absolutely do not predict the future of elections, and they are legitimately very bad at it.
panicking in a 50/50 contest 4 months away is some loser-ass shit
quit listening to losers
if something happens to biden then we have harris, it's actually very simple and working as designed!
I spent the entire morning listing all the things in Biden’s favor for the election and it’s stunning how much better I feel and how silly I feel having being doomed at by the commentariat.
Quick in the weeds question: how many states have abortion referenda on ballot in November? I know that Nevada and Arizona do (two swing states). What others?
That’s relevant to Biden’s chances in ways the NYT rarely if ever engages.
Florida does.
I don't know if that will be enough to swing Florida back to Biden - I really don't - but abortion is on the ballot here in November, and Trump's margin of victory wasn't that large - 3.4 in 2020; 1.2 in 2016. It might happen.
I'm also wondering if certain races might slip by the GOP.
(specifically, US House district 11 which for Reasons I think may surprise a number of people this election cycle)
Yes, for Tester. Our state is so weird in how we'll often vote for a Dem Senator or Governor (though not the present guy, obviously), but our electoral votes swing red every time. I don't get it, but at least this helps Tester, as much as some of his campaign ads lately drive me bonkers.
In 2022 GenZ and women almost tanked the "red wave" primarily because of abortion. Exit polling showed GenZ voting 2:1 in favor of Dems.
This November there will be about 3 million fewer Boomers and 12 million more GenZ'ers eligible to vote.
Elections with abortion on the ballot are going Blue.
Those numbers are the difference between 2020 and 2024 which was the last presidential election that the criminal felon lost by 7 million popular votes.
I am a boomer. I refuse to go back to coat hangers, secrecy, and those awful magdalene laundries. Here in the states they were called "homes for unwed mothers" Bullshit.
I am Riding with Biden all the way to the finish line.
Me too and I agree that no sane person wants a return to that dark age.
While I like Biden and will vote for him on the ticket my priority is keeping out the Xtofascists and the convicted felon so voting Blue no matter who.
Since Star Wars metaphors are suddenly the rage for this campaign all of a sudden, Dems should be like Luke and turn off their targeting computer. Tune out the broken polls and broken press and focus on running a campaign that's already proven it can win.
