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This poll is *wild* Head to head Biden wins under 35s by less than three points. He is up 15 points with 65+. A bunch of the other cross-tabs look basically plausible.
latest fox news national poll is the best Fox News for Biden since October www.foxnews.com/official-pol...
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Biden is +5 in the suburbs (+19 with suburban women), +27 with “moderates” (self-ID), and wins 40% of rural whites. If you assume that under-35s are basically impossible to accurately poll in this era the guts of this thing spell an absolute collapse for Trump.
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i mean put me down for doubt on him winning 40% of whites period, let alone rural ones
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lots of other polling has Biden strong with whites
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sure but when was the last time a dem won 40% of rural whites? clinton? maybe carter? i don’t think we’ve won 40% of all whites since 08
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I mean, if you think there's nonwhite collapse and Biden is ~tied then white surge is the necessary corollary.
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true but i’m skeptical of both tbh i *can* imagine biden improving with whites as he bottoms out in the rurals and winemomification continues
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I think gender gap swallowing everything pretty much explains what we're seeing
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this poll has men at Trump+15 and women at Biden+17 and at some point that just swamps the other demographic characteristics
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so a 30-point swing by gender? that's insane, and like everything in Trump-era politics I'm wondering if it's a Trump effect or a broader (likely Dobbs-based) one.
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i think that gender gap widening actually pre-dates trump but it accelerated under him
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I wonder about the long-term effects of that trend. I had assumed it ~mostly washed out on a personal level because of geographic sorting, but a 30-point swing is nuts. Especially with the parties also being very polarized.
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It's a really good point (though it was ~7% diff in 2020 i think). I agree and don't think it's distinguishable particularly from broader polarization trends. I can't see how Dobbs makes it better, ya know? There's just so much tension in the political system right now, it's ... a lot.