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You saw the headline, now look at what happened when scientists actually evaluate the headline
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Sure, but if you take this argument further it will be devastating to the clickbait takes industry bsky.app/profile/nste...
If you look at the average trend across countries, it’s not that the genders are dividing so much as that women are becoming more liberal. Trend for men is basically flat since 2000 in US and Germany, and men actually becoming more liberal in UK, just not as fast as women. www.ft.com/content/29fd...
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Is there a chance that they didn’t use the GSS weights?
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The original is using Gallup. The others are using GSS and ANES.
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I thought so too, but the footnote references FT analysis of various country social surveys. Not clear to me what’s from Gallup in the figures.
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He explains it all on his Twitter. Non Gallup used pre 1998, but Gallup thereafter.
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Pandemic actually ruined a bunch of data time series. (Sub topic of: we will actually never have enough data to prove much of anything, but still good to look.)
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The best reason to take a statistics course in college is you learn how most statistics you encounter in your life are probably no good
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Yeh but he's explained why there's the disparity... he didn't use the dataset with the 2022 change as Traina says, the data they are showing is sampled and calculated differently. It's not unusual for surveys not intended for that purpose not to replicate. x.com/jburnmurdoch...
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It's also nuts to expect a journalist should go through explaining why different results might occur in every other differently compiled dataset in a piece of journalism intended for the general public. I guess that would spoil the fun of the dunkers too.
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What a shocker that somebody with this background might actually know what they’re talking about But we must dunk on Numbers Guys, even if we have to resort to using other Numbers Guys
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"You saw the headline" is where it ends for 95 percent of people. This is why responsiblity in journalism is a nice idea, anyway.
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I had a feeling the were estimates from the ANUS
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Not always a reliable outlet.
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you should probably get that looked into
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What the hell is going on in South Korea though
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Falling birthrates. And culturally conservative
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they're a client state of the US dominated by Samsung and obsessed with looking a certain way, do the math
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I feel vindicated. Any polling data result is only ever going to be a half-step above pseudoscience like myers briggs in terms of rigor.
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takes don't go through peer review.
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So, it's false for the US, it's false for Germany, the data for the UK shows young men and young women both left-shifting but young women just doing so more... this really is just about South Korea, isn't it? bsky.app/profile/alon...
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Plus how sampling is impacted by people not answering phones, numbers not corresponding to locatiojs & some groups organizing to try & skew polling results.Plus coverage rarely mention, let alone analyze, how methodology like a questions phrasing can alter what results appear to say.
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This is a priming tool to help 40yo whites guys tell 20yo white guys that conservatives are actually the silent majority of Americans.
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congratulations on the first ever viral post on this platform
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I really don't understand the discussion around this chart. In what sense is it a dunk? If we take Traina's chart at face value, how does it not still suggest a widening gap? Why are people reacting to the tweet as if it said anything beyond "here's a data trend that may be revealing?"
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The point is you should not take data at face value. Data requires context. How data is interpreted matters.
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Also curious how they recruited sample. Online providers are plagued with bots, even if you’re careful.
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If you ask me, whenever they start trying to push social divides it means they know they're fucking up big time. Love your neighbor nomatter what the media says. Trust a person in your community (friend, neighbor, coworker) more than you do the media. I'm not saying blindly follow, but trust.
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Side note. You're community member should trust you too. If you're spitting truth in service of a better world, as long as you're consistent they may very well believe you too. My uncle taught me the truest words I've ever heard. Mean what you say and say what you mean. It's solid advice. Trust me.
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You go with “scientists”; I’ll stick with the guy telling a compelling narrative about how women crave sperm proximity.
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Bless the white-hat statistics wonk debunker critique.
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No thanks I liked the first story
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Just curious. Did anyone try a replication with the world values survey? You may be able to do similar analysis with the ISSP data. I would do it myself if I don’t have 300+ exams to grade.
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I was thinking that if this was real it would already be well known
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yup yup. glad to see my gut impression validated that the axes and trend lines were hincky
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Stick with class war, this faux generational stuff rots your brain.
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Lies, damn lies, and graphs?
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Can someone smart explain this to me 🥺