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George Pearkes @peark.es · 13 days
This poll is *wild* Head to head Biden wins under 35s by less than three points. He is up 15 points with 65+. A bunch of the other cross-tabs look basically plausible.
Avatar Taniel @taniel.bsky.social · 13 days
latest fox news national poll is the best Fox News for Biden since October www.foxnews.com/official-pol...
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 13 days
Biden is +5 in the suburbs (+19 with suburban women), +27 with “moderates” (self-ID), and wins 40% of rural whites. If you assume that under-35s are basically impossible to accurately poll in this era the guts of this thing spell an absolute collapse for Trump.
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lowtax speedrun enjoyer @rickywlmsbong.bsky.social · 13 days
i mean put me down for doubt on him winning 40% of whites period, let alone rural ones
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post malone ergo propter malone @proptermalone.bsky.social · 13 days
lots of other polling has Biden strong with whites
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lowtax speedrun enjoyer @rickywlmsbong.bsky.social · 13 days
sure but when was the last time a dem won 40% of rural whites? clinton? maybe carter? i don’t think we’ve won 40% of all whites since 08
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post malone ergo propter malone @proptermalone.bsky.social · 13 days
I mean, if you think there's nonwhite collapse and Biden is ~tied then white surge is the necessary corollary.
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lowtax speedrun enjoyer @rickywlmsbong.bsky.social · 13 days
true but i’m skeptical of both tbh i *can* imagine biden improving with whites as he bottoms out in the rurals and winemomification continues
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post malone ergo propter malone @proptermalone.bsky.social · 13 days
I think gender gap swallowing everything pretty much explains what we're seeing
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Mr. Nick Beaudrot @nbeaudrot.bsky.social · 13 days
Okay the crosstabs are strong indicators of the old Dems throwing everything else off. I dunno...