Political media pre-Nate Silver was terrible because it was like 95% "wow, GWB campaigning in CA, savvy move!"
Then polling models improved things from 2008-2014. But now the NYT Siena poll draws a week of "news." News that clearly reaches voters and... affects the polling!
The Warren campaign peaked right at the beginning of November that year. Then Nate Cohn shows her doing worse than Biden and Bernie - and that was it! "Unelectable." Campaign just deflated from there.
If your model impacts what you're modeling this much, it is not a good model anymore!
It's also settings like these, so negative replies to you are functionally similar to a quote tweet. The negative replies to you show up in their followers threads, their followers see it and wonder "who's this guy arguing with?" and maybe pile in.
Yeah the UN can't wield ICC/ICJ rulings to try and build coalitions against Russia or China, but then totally shit on them against Israel. Other countries hear US appeals "we are the good guys defending international laws" as incoherent bullshit.
FWIW I bet many Dems feel if you're running against Trump vs democracy, feels "wrong" to have a "coronation" of Harris in lieu of a "democratic process." My guess is there is some "unbound delegate nonsense" but Harris is such an obvious choice it's mostly ceremonial.
IMO the donors are just...
... mirroring the panic among the Dem electeds and MSM since the debate. This is not "donor takeover to force a corporate centrist conservadem" ticket, it's just these people all talking and panicking each other. Imagine Schiff, Katzenberg, and Maureen Dowd in a group text, that's all this is.
All Biden's voters knew they were voting for the Biden-Harris ticket. Also 99% of Dems calling for Biden to step down have praised his administration, which she was #2 for. She will likely get many endorsements from Dems who are popularly elected. I see your point but don't think it's hard to rebut.
What struck me about political polling is that you can only truly evaluate its accuracy once the actual election happens, at which point it's completely useless information anyway.
Funniest outcome is the Biden campaign continuing exactly like this through the election, one weird blooper/gaffe per day for months, donors gnashing and wailing and giving intemperate anonymous quotes all the while, big newspapers and TV gassing up The New Unifier Trump, and then Biden wins easily.
Also worth projecting to the conversations we're having about the Dem nomination. Sure, you've seen Shapiro et al give good interviews/speeches, but can they really deliver on the national stage? Harris is already playing in the big leagues, everyone else looks great because it's AA ball.
The "Biden drop out" shit is infuriating because it reeks of no agency. Like the only bulwark against MAGA is a ticket with a Generic Midwestern White Democrat, and without that, all is lost. There is no savior nominee, there is just US.
And they will break upon US. WE will not break before them.
You also see this dimension in how they love covering CONFLICT, because then they get to report on the conflict, arbitrate the winner, and then conclude who has the power.
See: Kevin McCarthy and these headlines, all fucking insider DC baseball, nothing about the actual stakes of governing!
You can tell who never dips into the MAGA side of the internet. In those spaces the Dems are always described as ruthlessly efficient manipulators of power, while the GOP are feckless morons who don't know how to fight, let alone win.
Contrapositive to this is how they always find the anonymous "senior GOP strategist" that's more irrationally confident than Deion Sanders.
"I don't think it's a problem for us, in fact I'd love for the Dems to make an issue out of banning IVF, it will totally backfire."
The donation is the date as Biden's inauguration. QAnon was all about "Trump will arrest Biden at the inauguration," my reckless theory is a friend bet him a $15 ActBlue donation on it. He lost the bet, but kept marinating his brain on QAnon stuff and went down "Trump is deep state too" branches.
We are so scared of a Trump win, we have not allowed ourselves to imagine the joy of a Biden win. It means that he fucking beat a generational fascist threat twice *with unapologetic Bidenomics.* Remember Abigail Spanberger back in 2021, when she said "Nobody elected him to be FDR"?
So let us allow ourselves to imagine a Biden win *and what it means.* Abigail Spanberger and the "moderates" and "centrists" will be utterly discredited and Biden will owe them nothing. The country will never be socialist, but it will be the nail in the coffin for neoliberalism. And that, I think...
... is why you see the centrists so eager to toss Biden aside, while Bernie/AOC/etc stand with Biden. The center dreads Trump's return (as are we), but unspoken their fear *of a Biden win.* It means *Bidenomics worked as a political project,* and will do so for the next 40 years, as Reaganomics did.
Last thought: imagine the GOP after a Biden win. Losing to an 81 year old man *whose own party thinks he's a decrepit carcass,* so what does that say about you? The centrists say they want a "moderate GOP," but do they? Really? A political system where *no* party loves unfettered capitalism?
If Trump wins, we all lose. But if Biden wins... think about who loses in that case. Think about the centrist shitheads who keep trying to drive Biden out. Is it just a fear that Biden can't beat Trump? Or a fear that Biden CAN, and what that will mean for the country? /end
My friend who is super into the NBA, but cares little about politics (but knows I do), texted me this clip x.com/KannoYoungs/... with the message "VP knows ball."
"Harris is better at campaigning in a way that pushes out good content/memes?" - arent you like Johnny Appleseed for this idea?
"Why did AOC, Omar, CBC endorse Biden?" Well because they're going to be the only moral compass in our govt if Trump wins. Which means when Trump does vile things again, they will yell "THIS IS WRONG." And each time they do that, they will get 1,036,455 voicemails with rape and death threats.
And will their colleagues join the fight? Some, but many will go "hurr durr, Trump is good on immigration, NYT told me we need to move to the center!"
So yeah, not surprised AOC looked at some in the Dem caucus - and decided NOT to join them in marinating her brain in Bret Stephens columns.
Trump winning doesn't mean "we've lost our democracy," but he WILL try and kill it in a second term, and we will need the few political leaders we have left to fight that from happening. And sorry to Michael Bennett, but like, what the fuck is he going to do when Trump orders...
... the WY national guard to deport every immigrant in CO? Michael Bennett isn't going to do shit, except say some boring shit in the Senate to the 150 people watching C-Span. Those who will have the hardest fights in a 2nd Trump term want to stick with Joe, and I think we should listen to them.
reporting from north trumpistan: the elders have made it very clear today that they are pissed off when someone attributes any stumble or lapse in a 60+ year old to dementia
my borough isn't just red. it is vermilion. it has passed red to get away from blue. but they're ...allying with him.
(Drawing concept cribbed from G Elliot Morris on X) Is this your conceit of the race? I think this explains why "if Biden doesn't drop we're likely going to lose" and "this is all just a bad distraction for Biden, who can still win" are just different views of the same reality.
