George Pearkes

@peark.es

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Macro Strategist | Econ, macro, home cooking, & the occasional cocktail | Even the blind squirrel get a nut sometime. | QCR: Non Culto | American via Canada, not Scottish.

*ALL CAPS HEADLINES LIKE THIS ARE FROM BLOOMBERG

📍 CLT NC

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There are way too many points in here to summarize quickly but if you are at all interested in Economy the Fed's semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress just dropped and there's a ton of interesting stuff. www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypoli...

www.federalreserve.gov

Reply to

lowtax speedrun enjoyer

lol

Reply to

Stephen Boisvert

yeah I absolutely think that's a part of it.

(though for vote share that almost def counts both ways)

*KREMLIN SAYS NO PROGRESS IN MOVING TOWARD UKRAINE TALKS: TASS

*PUTIN: DISCUSSED POSSIBLE SETTLEMENT OF UKRAINE WAR

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George Pearkes

NEWS --> Mark Robinson, the MAGA extremist GOP nominee for governor in North Carolina, appeared to endorse political violence against unnamed foes in a recent speech. "Some folks need killing!" he shouted. "It's a matter of necessity!" Video and story here: newrepublic.com/article/1834...

MAGA Gov Candidate’s Ugly, Hateful Rant: “Some Folks Need Killing!”newrepublic.com Mark Robinson, the GOP nominee for governor in North Carolina, has a long history of incendiary comments. But he may have topped himself this time.

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George Pearkes

The Vatican excommunicated Archbishop Carlo Maria Viganò, exacting a severe punishment on the most vociferous internal critic of Pope Francis for refusing to recognize the authority of the pope and liberal reforms made by the Roman Catholic Church since the Second Vatican Council in the 1960s.

Vatican excommunicates Archbishop Viganò for refusing to recognize Pope Franciswapo.st In a rare trial, the Vatican acted against Carlo Maria Viganò, a former ambassador to the U.S. and one of Pope Francis’s most vociferous internal critics.

Reply to

lowtax speedrun enjoyer

Well the nice thing about actuarial tables is they take account of both factors.

Obviously 175 is the boundary for both here, but the left coalition matching RN would absolutely wild given where we were at a month ago. *LE PEN PROJECTED TO WIN 175-205 SEATS IN FRENCH VOTE: IPSOS *NEW POPULAR FRONT PROJECTED TO GET 145-175 SEATS: IPSOS

*PUTIN: DISCUSSED POSSIBLE SETTLEMENT OF UKRAINE WAR

Good thread as always on jobs day from Ben.

OK, time for a 💹🧵: Starting with the unemployment rate, which ticked up to 4.1%. That's still low, but it marks the end of a historic period of unemployment at or below 4%. #NumbersDay

Reply to

the clay (né sports despair / hobbies guy)

Three charts to help understand the UK election results

Ugh just realized the “All Other” series didn’t get formatted grey properly 😭😭😭

Reply to

Steve Zorowitz

yep agree

Beat, 206k payrolls, but 111k revised off last two months. Unemployment rate up to 4.1%, average hourly earnings on expectations for MoM and YoY.

June Employment Situation report due at the bottom of the hour. Consensus looking for 190k jobs based on the establishment survey (NFP), a 4.0% unemployment rate (unch'd), and average hourly earnings for all workers up 0.3% MoM or 3.9% YoY.

206k payrolls is *not* a weak number, but it looks very close to equilibrium jobs growth (as opposed to "hot" which is what 300+k is very definitively). Rates are down 6-7 bps on this, dollar at session lows, US equity index futures session highs (bad news is good news).

Prime age employment-population ratio has been stable at 80.8% for all of Q2, slightly below its 80.9 peak from July of last year but no sign that this key slice of workers is seeing big employment headwinds.

The slow rise in the unemployment rate is backed up by the rising median duration of unemployment. No big surge, just a steady, slow deterioration at manageable levels. The worry is this turns into a big surge as weaker labor markets snowball, but that doesn't appear to be happening yet.

Weekly pay disbursals for the private sector (weekly pay * employment, or alternatively avg hourly earnings * avg weekly hours * employment) is chugging along a bit below 5%. Given inflation's decline, this is plenty of earned income to sustain demand at levels that prevent a labor market downturn.

Same chart, added a series deflating payroll disbursals by CPI to show where we're at in real terms. ~1.7% growth, not spectacular but not bad either. Plenty to keep consumers spending.

Reply to

ryan cooper

and lots of the people who I know personally that are cheering this on loudest are the same folks that tore their hair out over DNC manipulations (allegedly) in '16 and '20! Not all tbc but inside my filter bubble, those are the most aggressive voices on it.

Reply to

ryan cooper

It's really jarring talking to people who are in/out of the "media types or politics sickos" Venn. The obsession is just not there at all, regardless of opinions on Biden's fitness.

Reply to

Well put.

at least, taken seriously by *some* people. open question as to their priors.

Reply to

Chris Broome

No such promises mate. Actuarial table probably a decent bet to predict that one tbh.

Reply to

Chad Hill

correct!

Labour's triumph, such as it was, was to maintain its coalition in a way that generated extremely efficient seat conversion. Which is a certain kind of triumph! But different from a crushing surge of votes that the seat counts would suggest.

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George Pearkes

Fireworks last night via air quality monitors. Can watch the shows roll west with explosions of bad air. #July4