George Pearkes

@peark.es

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Macro Strategist | Econ, macro, home cooking, & the occasional cocktail | Even the blind squirrel get a nut sometime. | QCR: Non Culto | American via Canada, not Scottish.

*ALL CAPS HEADLINES LIKE THIS ARE FROM BLOOMBERG

📍 CLT NC

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Reply to

George Pearkes

The slow rise in the unemployment rate is backed up by the rising median duration of unemployment. No big surge, just a steady, slow deterioration at manageable levels. The worry is this turns into a big surge as weaker labor markets snowball, but that doesn't appear to be happening yet.

Weekly pay disbursals for the private sector (weekly pay * employment, or alternatively avg hourly earnings * avg weekly hours * employment) is chugging along a bit below 5%. Given inflation's decline, this is plenty of earned income to sustain demand at levels that prevent a labor market downturn.

Same chart, added a series deflating payroll disbursals by CPI to show where we're at in real terms. ~1.7% growth, not spectacular but not bad either. Plenty to keep consumers spending.

Three charts to help understand the UK election results

Reply to

The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter

Correct!

I would heavily discount this based on the source but FWIW *BIDEN TOLD ALLY HE IS WEIGHING WHETHER TO CONTINUE RUNNING: NYT

Not at all.

yeah but meanwhile S&P global's equivalent index was the highest since April of 2022 lol www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...

Wow! *US JUNE ISM SERVICES PMI FALLS TO 4-YR LOW OF 48.8; EST. 52.7

Reply to

George Pearkes

As shown in the chart below, the SA factor for the current week's data is very stable despite what looks like a persistent seasonal shift. Does this fully explain the rise in claims? Not necessarily, but it's a major confounding factor. My interpretation: labor market slowing, not collapsing. 9/n

Reply to

George Pearkes

The chart below attempts to show why this lag in SA might be creating some issues (description in alt text). As shown, 2022-2024 see a much steeper ramp in NSA continuing claims than was the norm pre-COVID. '21 (included in chart) and '20 (excluded) were very unusual due to COVID so ignore them 7/n

Reply to

George Pearkes

Seasonality refers to the regular annual pattern of a data set. In the case of UI benefits, the number of claimaints always peaks for the year right at the start of January and bottoms in the fall. Seasonal adjustment seeks to account for this pattern and make one period comparable to the next. 5/n

Reply to

George Pearkes

This week we got data for the week ending June 22nd. Using Dept. of Labor seasonal adjustment, the number of people receiving UI benefits rose sharply to the highest level in almost three years after moving sideways for most of the past 12 months. 2/n

One of the concerns in US macro data lately has been that the unemployment rate (based on large samples of the population each month) is rising. It's rising very slowly from extreme low levels, but historically rising unemployment tends to snowball and accelerate rapidly, leading to recession. 3/n

US private construction spending on manufacturing just keeps trucking. $233.3bn SAAR in May per this morning's release. Note: because this is a nominal (current dollar) series, this is log scale.

Boeing to be charged with fraud over 737-MAX crashes.

If you’re eating a random cuisine like Cuban-Nicaraguan fusion in rural NC it’s either going to be one of the worst meals of your life or mind-bendingly good. We have a winnnnnah!

Reply to

Georgia is a Verb

Hahahaha. Tbf JPM’s CRE exposure is very much not a big deal. $200bn sounds like a lot but in the context of that balance sheet it is not. They just don’t play in office and the rest of CRE a very different story. From late May investor day deck: www.jpmorganchase.com/content/dam/...

After passing Fed stress tests major banks announced new capital return plans after the close Friday. Nothing too dramatic, JPM the most sizeable increase.

lol what on earth

Well goddamn if they didn't have me pinned. Gift link if you want to do yours. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

We have our first post-debate poll. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-...

*TRUMP AIDE BANNON FACES PRISON AFTER SUPREME COURT REJECTION

Reply to

George Pearkes

*nods slowly*

Almost an hour post-release so forgive me but core PCE data this morning showed a sharp deceleration as expected based on PPI and CPI data earlier this month. Basically everything is trending the right direction.

Rivian investor day deck. Incredible cost compression as they gain experience. R1 Gen 1 to R2 costs will be reduced by more than 55% on a unit basis. downloads.rivian.com/2md5qhoeajym...

Every time I see an AI revenue headline I'm staggered by how small the numbers are. *OPENAI ANNUALIZED REVENUE ~$1B FROM MODEL ACCESS: INFORMATION

Reply to

John Brown stan account

Oh I misread you’re right it isn’t cumulative. And yes I saw that other reply and it is global not national. Roughly ties out to this chart. ember-climate.org/insights/in-...

Reply to

John Brown stan account

Current installed capacity is around 1200 GW across all sources, dominated by gas. www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo...

Reply to

George Pearkes

*BOLIVIA'S EX-ARMY GENERAL ZUNIGA ARRESTED AFTER COUP ATTEMPT

Reply to

George Pearkes

Frustratingly little detail.