Post

Avatar
Avatar
either everything we have ever learned about presidential campaigns is wrong and trump is headed to victory, or he isn’t
Avatar
The Nates have rated the above statement as a fifty/fifty shot
Avatar
lol. i mean, i’m no fuckin’ nostradamus, but, like, same as it was in march, same as it was in january, same as it was all through 2023, trump’s campaign fundamentals look bad, bad, bad, and either those are gonna matter, or nothing does
Avatar
Because I'm busy trying to manage The Fear*, what fundamentals are you thinking of? *which yes, I know is best solved through work, I do Tech For Campaigns regularly.
Avatar
they outsourced outreach and mobilization to charlie kirk, RNC has very few field offices in any state, their ad buys are both anemic and late, state parties are in complete disorder, trump’s rallies are way below attendance from even 2020 and the RNC purged the few experienced pros they had
Avatar
In this regard this election is an amazing poli-sci experiment in controlling for every factor against one candidate except for "bad vibes"
Avatar
If Trump wins it proves all you need is social media rizz and all the rest is meaningless pomp and circumstance.
Avatar
it does strike me that a lot of the people certain that biden should drop out, that trump is unstoppable, etc, are also the same people who thought desantis would cruise to the nomination.
Avatar
The Republicans are going to dump Trump for the younger, more articulate and even more evil model. lol some of us fell for that. Reagan could’ve rose from the grave and the MAGA’s would’ve crushed him as a non-believer
Avatar
The fact no would-be heir to Trump has succeeded or at least risen above their own fiefdom has been bizarre but heartening.
Avatar
The only heirs to his political power he’ll allow are his idiot sons (and he might pass over them for Barron). But the only thing worse than a Donald Trump presidency would be a Donald Trump Jr presidency