lol. i mean, i’m no fuckin’ nostradamus, but, like, same as it was in march, same as it was in january, same as it was all through 2023, trump’s campaign fundamentals look bad, bad, bad, and either those are gonna matter, or nothing does
Because I'm busy trying to manage The Fear*, what fundamentals are you thinking of?
*which yes, I know is best solved through work, I do Tech For Campaigns regularly.
they outsourced outreach and mobilization to charlie kirk, RNC has very few field offices in any state, their ad buys are both anemic and late, state parties are in complete disorder, trump’s rallies are way below attendance from even 2020 and the RNC purged the few experienced pros they had
it does strike me that a lot of the people certain that biden should drop out, that trump is unstoppable, etc, are also the same people who thought desantis would cruise to the nomination.
I am literally a professional politics-knower and I can confirm that our ability to predict what will happen next is literally never as good as pundits like to pretend it is. As I tell my grad students, social science doesn't do point predictions.
yes, and as I tell my students: no one can be sure who is going to vote how, but you can look at something like this [RCP poll w/Trump up by 9] & be sure that the process they're using cannot predict reliably
making explicit 'no one knows' vs 'we can't tell using this instrument' is tiring though
Or that Haley, had she won the nomination, would be cruising to a double digit victory, rather than trying to hold together a shattered caucus as Trump, from the outside, took a sledgehammer to its supports.
like, i haven't done a thorough survey, but in general i think i'm right. and it's like... if you didn't predict desantis would crash and burn immediately, how much of a politics knower can you be, really
there were like maybe two stories on desantis’ unusual (and disastrous) decision to outsource almost the entire campaign to a PAC, a strategy that trump is following almost to the letter
I realize it’s confirmation bias as someone who accurately predicted he would crash and burn (purely bc I had heard him speak before) but I also do not care
The Republicans are going to dump Trump for the younger, more articulate and even more evil model. lol some of us fell for that. Reagan could’ve rose from the grave and the MAGA’s would’ve crushed him as a non-believer
The only heirs to his political power he’ll allow are his idiot sons (and he might pass over them for Barron). But the only thing worse than a Donald Trump presidency would be a Donald Trump Jr presidency
The fact that DeSantis won a recently-purple state by *20 points* is solid evidence of his personal charm and genuine political skills and nothing whatsoever to do with the health of the Florida democratic party.
And now, apropos of nothing, let's check in on the Michigan GOP...
Someone posted a screenshot from you in the comments at Lawyers Guns & Money. Good to see some sense over there (since most of the bloggers seem to have left planet earth)
