movement in the swing states are highly correlated with movement in the national polls. if this news moved the polls 1 point to Trump, you would expect swing states to move 1 point to Trump, plus or minus a couple
I think the bigger takeaway is that, despite getting non-stop sympathetic coverage and a couple highly positive visuals, the assassination attempt didn't really change anyone's mind about Trump
sorta like how the debate was supposed to swing the race to Trump (he gained 1 point in the 538 polling average, if you trust that)
it's almost, ALMOST, as if everyone has already made up their minds about these two guys and the polling is just noise
the lowest note of the song is the third note of the song, and the highest note of the song is an octave and fifth above that
an amateur singer usually has a comfortable singing range of exactly an octave and a fifth, so if they don't sing it in exactly the right key, they're gonna have a bad time
I think there are a lot of Gallego voters who don't want to vote for Biden and will tell pollsters that, but once they're in the voting booth for Gallego they'll roll their eyes and tick Biden
depends on which polls you include, but even if you take 538 as gospel (their record in the Trump era hasn't been great), I don't call "going up 1 point after non-stop negative coverage for your opponent" a win
one thing that makes the polling less stressful is that we've never had an election in which one party is doing GOTV very very well and one party just isn't doing GOTV at all
a disciplined politician could use this incident to make a "law-and-order" case for his candidacy
Trump is many things, but "disciplined" is not one of them
