Sharon Kuruvilla: consider this though: bsky.app/profile/tani...

everyone needs to calm the hell down. i'm not in the biden-defending business, but he had one half of one debate that went poorly. that elected dems are talking about removing is ridiculous.

consider this though: bsky.app/profile/tani...

CNN's new poll: Trump leads Biden 49/43. Trump leads Harris 47/45. Some differences: —Independents: Biden -10%. Harris +3%. —People of color: Biden +21. Harris +29. The side-by-side:

basically no difference, tbh

i will note that like basically everyone else's polls here, trump's lead is essentailly grounded on an alleged 40 point swing right among under-29 minorities

is it possible that under-29 minorities have swung 40 points right but only for the biden v trump race? i mean, i guess.

If there's one thing I know young people of color love, it's Donald J Trump

when you compare it to senatorial polls it implies a level of ticket-splitting roughly double what saved Susan Collins

The answer seems to very much be "we have no fucking idea what's going on"

i think it's not a coincidence that "under 29 minorities" are going to be the demographic with catastrophically bad response rates to polling

incidentally, in a couple of weeks i wouldn't be surprised to see a gain for biden in the polls as anxiety among democrats improves their response rates

Yeah - though it's also not purely random, because it's all in the one direction, rather than flopping around chaotically.

The ghost of The Literary Digest is going to have some friends soon - but who? historymatters.gmu.edu/d/5168/

Landon in a Landslide: The Poll That Changed Pollinghistorymatters.gmu.edu

While Trump *has* made some unexpected gains in these demographics (largely as a proxy for misogyny in young men), it's nothing in the universe of those numbers, lmao

that's what i think, too. most all of those will come home. i could be wrong, of course. we'll find out in november

Yeah. Hoping the influence of SJW Cringe Compilations, Kevin Samuels, the Paul brothers, etc. continues to wane

80 point swing in young minority men would be… well, they wouldn’t need to AI generate images from NYC for one thing.

They've got Donald Trump BEATING Joe Biden with women in this poll (if I'm reading it correctly) which would invert...an awful lot.

sure would, wouldn't it

Like, we JUST witnessed 2022 and the Ohio referendum votes, but now we're just supposed to believe that all of that is forgotten because of a debate performance? Absolutely fuck outta here.

Yeah, that's comfortably a margin of error difference.

the good news is, this isn't a significant change from this poll's previous incarnation - of course, that's also the bad news!

And does anyone actually believe that polling will hold if she were to become the nominee, getting all the national media scrutiny Biden's getting plus racist and sexist attack ads? I just think polling for someone not actively running for president and for someone who is can't be compared.

Yep. There would be ways of rolling her out that would mitigate this; you could give her a good push. But that doesn't mean it won't happen. A lot of people are going to despise her immediately no matter what.

And Trump winning women over Biden is fundamentally absurd so you know there's SOMETHING going on in that sample. I'm not in the "unskewing" business but we gotta take it all with a lot of salt.

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