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George Pearkes @peark.es · 13 days
This poll is *wild* Head to head Biden wins under 35s by less than three points. He is up 15 points with 65+. A bunch of the other cross-tabs look basically plausible.
Avatar Taniel @taniel.bsky.social · 13 days
latest fox news national poll is the best Fox News for Biden since October www.foxnews.com/official-pol...
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 13 days
Biden is +5 in the suburbs (+19 with suburban women), +27 with “moderates” (self-ID), and wins 40% of rural whites. If you assume that under-35s are basically impossible to accurately poll in this era the guts of this thing spell an absolute collapse for Trump.
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lowtax speedrun enjoyer @rickywlmsbong.bsky.social · 13 days
i mean put me down for doubt on him winning 40% of whites period, let alone rural ones
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post malone ergo propter malone @proptermalone.bsky.social · 13 days
lots of other polling has Biden strong with whites
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lowtax speedrun enjoyer @rickywlmsbong.bsky.social · 13 days
sure but when was the last time a dem won 40% of rural whites? clinton? maybe carter? i don’t think we’ve won 40% of all whites since 08
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post malone ergo propter malone @proptermalone.bsky.social · 13 days
I mean, if you think there's nonwhite collapse and Biden is ~tied then white surge is the necessary corollary.
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yarrriv @yarrriv.bsky.social · 13 days
Has anybody done an estimate of how many people are going to flip their vote if these polls hold? It must an extraordinary number. 10% of 65+ year olds are going to vote not only for the opposite party they did last time, but literally the opposite person on the same ballot
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Materialist Gnostic @walmsley.bsky.social · 13 days
the specific dynamic where the race is the exact same two people seems like it will have weird effects that are hard to predict. also the thing where they have both been president before.