yarrriv: Has anybody done an estimate of how many people are going to flip their vote if these polls hold? It must an extraordinary number. 10% of 65+ year olds are going to vote not only for the opposite party they did last time, but literally the opposite person on the same ballot

This poll is *wild* Head to head Biden wins under 35s by less than three points. He is up 15 points with 65+. A bunch of the other cross-tabs look basically plausible.

latest fox news national poll is the best Fox News for Biden since October www.foxnews.com/official-pol...

Biden is +5 in the suburbs (+19 with suburban women), +27 with “moderates” (self-ID), and wins 40% of rural whites. If you assume that under-35s are basically impossible to accurately poll in this era the guts of this thing spell an absolute collapse for Trump.

i mean put me down for doubt on him winning 40% of whites period, let alone rural ones

lots of other polling has Biden strong with whites

sure but when was the last time a dem won 40% of rural whites? clinton? maybe carter? i don’t think we’ve won 40% of all whites since 08

I mean, if you think there's nonwhite collapse and Biden is ~tied then white surge is the necessary corollary.

Has anybody done an estimate of how many people are going to flip their vote if these polls hold? It must an extraordinary number. 10% of 65+ year olds are going to vote not only for the opposite party they did last time, but literally the opposite person on the same ballot

(some of them were 61 and some are dead and some are not voting, ok, so maybe it's 7%-8%, it would still be a lot more than usual, right?)

Some are people coming into and out of the electorate, but I'm guessing this will be a 140m election, 2020 was 160k, so there's a bunch of voters dropping out. I could see reluctant Trump voters in 2020 not voting this time around.

The variation is a lot more pronounced for 65+ though

If we're being real but also vicious, covid took a Miley Cyrus Wrecking Ball to a lot of the over 50 GOP votes.

Someone did this analysis I think and it's like a point or two, definitely not a 20 point swing

My anecdotal evidence suggests the same but with some variations on actually showing up to vote vs who they'd vote for.

Deaths? I'm out of ideas. I do think that there's a bunch of 65+ who are putting "democracy" at the top of their issues, and they may be thinking of January 6th. That could be full flips. The D-Day speech was for them.

the specific dynamic where the race is the exact same two people seems like it will have weird effects that are hard to predict. also the thing where they have both been president before.

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