Andrew Dessler

@andrewdessler.bsky.social

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Prof of Atmospheric Sciences & climate scientist @ Texas A&M; AGU and AAAS Fellow; Native Texan; find out what I think at http://theclimatebrink.substack.com

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Nice article in The Conversation from Prof. Brian Tang on rapid intensification of hurricanes and how this connects to climate change. theconversation.com/...

Hurricane Beryl’s rapid intensification, Category 5 winds so early in a season were alarming: Here’s why more tropical storms are exploding in strengththeconversation.com Beryl’s strength and rapid intensification set records, raising alarms about what’s already expected to be a very active Atlantic hurricane season, as a meteorologist explains.

I just pulled my car into my garage and ran over a rat. How's your day going?

Anyone who thinks that temperatures in the 1930s were as high as today's is confusing global temperatures with temperatures in the U.S., which makes up 2% of the surface area of the globe. Globally, the 1930s were much much cooler than today.

We wrote about this on The Climate Brink: www.theclimatebrink.com/p/which-was-...

Which was warmer: the 1930s or the last 10 yearswww.theclimatebrink.com Are cherries your favorite fruit?

Reply to

Willard

yes, that's the wrong link, sorry. here's the right one: www.theclimatebrink.com/p/climate-ch...

Climate change is making hurricanes more destructivewww.theclimatebrink.com a lot of climate misinformers don't want you to understand this

Re: #HurricaneBeryl. Here's what I think is the most important thing to remember: For *literally* months, the scientific community has been saying, "Look out everyone, the sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are really hot. Hurricane season could be intense."

Then the monstrous Beryl comes along, the strongest every July Atlantic storm. bmcnoldy.blogspot.com

This is yet another demonstration of the power and success of climate science. Successful predictions like this demonstrate that we understand something fundamental about the climate system. In fact, climate science is a parade of successful predictions.

Let's review the successful predictions from the climate denial community:

If you want to see more about successful predictions, watch this (now a bit dated) talk by Ray Pierrehumbert youtu.be/RICBu_P8JWI?...

Reply to

Prof. Kevin J. Kircher

the preponderance of evidence is that tropical cyclone numbers will decline. however, we don't have a good theory for what processes regulate the number of TCs, so it's hard to have confidence in that result. but it is robustly true that the TCs that do form will be more destructive.

Quick update on how hurricanes (tropical cyclones) are affected by climate change. Hurricanes that form will be: 1) more intense 2) bring more rain 3) bring higher storm surge

The only real uncertainty is how climate change will affect the *number* of these storms. There is significant uncertainty in both the magnitude and sign of the change, but most of the evidence suggests fewer tropical cyclones.

I've written about all of this here: www.theclimatebrink.com/p/climate-ch...

Climate change is making hurricanes more destructivewww.theclimatebrink.com a lot of climate misinformers don't want you to understand this

Humanity has done well by burning fossil fuels and dumping CO2 into the atmosphere. This is like running up a big credit card debt: it’s great while you’re doing it, but eventually the bill comes due. The growing carbon debt, by @hausfath.bsky.social www.theclimatebrink.com/p/the-growin...

The growing carbon debtwww.theclimatebrink.com Why the climate change is different from other environmental challenges

Reply to

Lawrence Hall

I have not read the study. But I did read the news article and my guess is that they’re measuring an Earth System Sensitivity rather than what we normally call climate sensitivity. ESS contains factors not included in climate sensitivity. This could explain why they’re getting higher numbers.

Climate change is making all of this extreme weather more extreme: the heat will be worse and the rain will be more intense. The cherry on top is that more extreme rain will make any flooding worse.

Reply to

Katharine Hayhoe

We get PowerPoint slides with a somnolent voice track

that's hilarious!

I suppose there are people out there who take this training and say "I had no idea ...". I may not be the target demographic that they're really trying to reach.

Mandatory Univ. training modules are not a waste of time at all.

follow up to: bsky.app/profile/andr...

mandatory univ. training modules are not a waste of time at all. I've learned a lot of useful life lessons from it.

To everyone who thinks Hunga Tonga volcanic eruption is responsible for any extreme rain event, let's run the numbers: 1) HT injected 30 billion gal. into the atmosphere 2) spread that over, say, Houston, and it's 0.2 inches of rain No, HT is not causing extreme rain.

regardless of how many legs you have, it's still "show your stripes" day!

Reposted by

Andrew Dessler

"CO2 is the World's Dumbest Criminal": from Peter Sinclair's interview of @andrewdessler.bsky.social.

Andrew Dessler PhD: CO2 is the World's Dumbest Criminalwww.youtube.com More from my interview with Andrew Dessler PhD of Texas A&M University. He is Professor of Atmospheric Sciences and holder of the Reta A. Haynes Chair in Geoscience at Texas A&M University. He is also the Director of the Texas Center for Climate Studies.

Reposted by

Andrew Dessler

sea level rise — caused by humans — is making this worse. any house with less than about a foot of water in it would be dry w/o human's warming the climate.

Reply to

Bernhard Mayr

right. when I said there was no correlation, I meant in the data. certainly a correlation may exist in the real world that we don't have the data to see.

Reply to

Bernhard Mayr

yes, the correct conclusion is that there is no correlation

sea level rise — caused by humans — is making this worse. any house with less than about a foot of water in it would be dry w/o human's warming the climate.

Humanity about to find out: you broke it, you bought it

With half the month now behind us, June 2024 is very likely to be the warmest June on record. It is on track to beat 2023's record by nearly 0.2C, and may represent an ominous sign that global temperatures are not falling very quickly despite the fading of El Nino conditions.