Anthony Zacharzewski

@anthonyzach.be

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Trying to make European democracy work. "Refreshingly free of the usual platitudes". Belge par choix, Brits door opvoeding.

Posts Replies Media

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Anthony Zacharzewski

If you follow 538's Electoral College forecasts, Biden edges Trump 270 to 268 which is obviously a win but it's also the kind of situation that can create the kind of chaos Trump can exploit

The prediction divergence expands: Economist now has Biden at 1 in 5. www.economist.com/interactive/... 538 has Biden up slightly, winning 53 out of 100 times. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-electio...

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?projects.fivethirtyeight.com 538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Joe Biden’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.

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Anthony Zacharzewski

Reply to

Twlldun

It’s certainly the dividing line in NZ media, and sadly ours is dominated by the ‘Fresh News from Ye Royal Court’ variety. It’s exhausting and dispiriting at a time when even the OECD recognises the threats to democracy are serious. www.oecd-events.org/global-forum...

2024 OECD Global Forum on Building Trust and Reinforcing Democracywww.oecd-events.org

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Anthony Zacharzewski

That Vance is a direct line to Thiel and Andreessen is truly important. Trump wants their money. Thiel wants to sell billions in Palantir contracts to power Trump’s mass surveillance/ethnic cleansing infrastructure. Pence was the Christian Nationalists’ guy. Vance is reactionary capital’s.

Are you a fan of all of those guys who are directly responsible for making the internet an unusable dogshit hellhole? Well boy do I have a VP for you.

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Anthony Zacharzewski

Which means you also energy

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Anthony Zacharzewski

So much “voters” discourse is “first, assume the existence of someone much less intelligent than yourself and everyone taking part in this discussion”. A much lower stakes version playing out with prison reform in the UK, where there’s an imagined, incredibly thick bloc of swing voters.

There is an inherent snobbery and superiority in the idea a photo of Trump surviving a shooting wins him the election. Oh, I myself am not swayed by that but your average voter is an idiot easily swayed by flashing colours and bright lights. Honestly, fuck off.

Making coffee while playing French music in honour of Bastille Day and very studiously ignoring the news. open.spotify.com/track/0O7j6n...

On iraopen.spotify.com Listen to On ira on Spotify. Zaz · Song · 2013.

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Anthony Zacharzewski

It’s very normal and healthy to not have an opinion on everything.

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Anthony Zacharzewski

I truly believe that one day we as a website will make it out of the darkness of weird arbitrary "complicity" moralism and into the sunny daylight in between "the thing you do is connected to something/someone bad" and "the thing you do itself is a bad thing"

Full list of the terrible parties in this edition of the European Parliament, at least I'm getting a little joy from the one bit of the Czech fash being called "Oath and Motorists"

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Anthony Zacharzewski

There are a lot of things wrong with Viktor Orban, but I don't think enough attention is being paid to his complaints about "race mixing."

Breaking News: Donald Trump is expected to meet with Hungary’s right-wing leader, Viktor Orban, in Florida on Thursday, days after Orban met Vladimir Putin in Russia.

Trump Is Expected to Meet With Orban, Hungary’s Prime Minister, in Floridawww.nytimes.com The meeting would come after Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has long been aligned with the former president, made unexpected trips to China, Russia and Ukraine.

This whole thing just makes me think of Elon as the Corpsecution controller from The Day Today (from 1:36 but you’ll need to watch the rest for context) youtu.be/8Lf0A3JuxjU?...

very chill stuff, very chill stuff indeed www.nytimes.com/2024/07/11/t...

THE DAY TODAY - Chapman Baxter 2youtu.be Justice

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Anthony Zacharzewski

Never a penalty, but here we are.

Federal government negotiations look set to start tomorrow, De Wever of N-VA to be named formateur and most likely the next Prime Minister, if negotiations succeed. www.demorgen.be/snelnieuws/l...

Live - Vooruit geeft groen licht voor start federale formatiegesprekken • Bart De Wever morgen zo goed als zeker formateurwww.demorgen.be Volg live alle ontwikkelingen in de formatiegesprekken na de verkiezingen van 9 juni 2024 hieronder.

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Anthony Zacharzewski

I am 100% here for Farage talking about Brexit all the time. The more he can talk about it the better.

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Anthony Zacharzewski

Now Farage has spoken as an MP for the first time, can we please have something approximating scrutiny of him from at least the lobby? Time to stop acting like he’s a lovable eccentric and start treating him as someone on the public payroll, who has to adhere to standards he does not share. Thanks.

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Anthony Zacharzewski

I decided to get one of those substack things people have and write about how Labour's victory is a reminder of how party strategy changes in a multi party, volatile environment. There's a bit about the 1977 Dutch election if you like that sort of thing open.substack.com/pub/election...

The coalitionable, inoffensive, Labour Partyopen.substack.com How party strategy in European PR systems can tell us about Labour's victory, and a journey through the weird and wonderful operation of Britain's electoral system.

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Anthony Zacharzewski

Yes, NFP (left & Green ; no center left) won; a truly inspiring achievement. In the French system, This the first time in history that the second round completely changed the results of the first round ( that was giving all the power to the extrême right).

Le Soir reporting that left/centre left alliance has won the French elections according to exit polls

We have nonante-neuf problems but knowing how to negotiate coalitions ain't one.

La belgicisation de la France

La belgicisation de la Francewww.rtbf.be La France se réveille un peu belge ce matin. Car voilà la république sans majorité absolue, condamnée à négocier et...

I see RN waited till after the second round to finally declare themselves for Putin, corruption and the end of the rule of law. I guess they know how it will look to the French public.

Le RN devrait rejoindre le groupe de Viktor Orban au Parlement européen

Le RN devrait rejoindre le groupe de Viktor Orban au Parlement européenwww.euractiv.fr Plusieurs sources au sein du Rassemblement national (RN) ont confirmé dimanche soir (7 juillet) à Euractiv que le parti d’extrême droite devrait rejoindre le groupe des « Patriotes pour l’Europe » formé au Parlement européen par Viktor Orban et ses alliés.

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Anthony Zacharzewski

Reply to

Taniel

What could have happened today if more candidates who came in 3rd had refused to drop out? Hint of an answer in the city of Aix. Here, the Macronist candidate refused to drop out. As a result, no front vs the far-right. Result: RN wins with 37%. Left at 36%. Macronists 27%.

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Anthony Zacharzewski

There are some broad points of clarity that have emerged from the French legislative elections, but much more uncertainty about the practical impact. I'll start with the points of clarity. 1. The front républicain is still viable, but it is much more febrile than even two years ago. 🧵

Quiévrain: With French Parliament split into equal thirds, a crack team of Belgians is heading south to offer urgent government negotiation assistance.

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Anthony Zacharzewski

Polish PM Donald Tusk: “In Paris enthusiasm, in Moscow disappointment, in Kyiv relief. Enough to be happy in Warsaw.”

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Shock follows shock! Exit poll puts Le Pen’s right wing National Rally in THIRD …behind the left wing NFP and Macron’s Ensemble.

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Anthony Zacharzewski

Who's that!? It's Leon Blum with a steel chair!!!!

Le Soir reporting that left/centre left alliance has won the French elections according to exit polls

French parliamentary election turnout about to exceed that of UK general election with three hours of polling to go (one hour in rural areas). Highest turnout at 17h since 1981.

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Anthony Zacharzewski

Législatives 2024 : à midi, la participation au second tour au plus haut depuis 1981

Législatives 2024 : à midi, la participation au second tour au plus haut depuis 1981www.lemonde.fr Au premier tour, à midi, 25,9 % des électeurs inscrits sur les listes élecorales s’étaient déjà déplacés dans les bureaux de vote.

Boris Johnson worries about a “road to serfdom” so I propose the EU offers a special Boris Johnson deal where the UK would elect MEPs, have the PM and minsters sit in the European council and get a vote on all regulation and EU appointments, if it rejoined.

Mail on Sunday threatening me with a good time I see.