Chris Hayes: I’m sorry, this is more than “a caveat,” it’s actually the whole story.

I’m sorry, this is more than “a caveat,” it’s actually the whole story.

This entire story is a perfect example of how economic reporting has missed the story. They interview one (1) working class woman who has been legitimately screwed by her employer ($1/hr raise in 5 years) and then note that wages for working people in the aggregate have outpaced inflation!

Again, the conceit of the piece is perfectly reasonable, as is some of the reporting, but if you scratch it, you see the actual data belies the thesis. www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/b...

America’s Divided Summer Economy Is Coming to an Airport or Hotel Near Youwww.nytimes.com The gulf between higher- and lower-income consumers has been widening for years, but it is expected to show up especially clearly in travel this season.

There’s testable hypothesis here and I’m willing to make a prediction: choice an empirical metric to measure low and middle income people taking summer trips and I will bet they are up YoY when summer is over.

Again, none of this is to say American capitalism is awesome for working people, it manifestly is not! But we’re talking about change vs constants. And the *trends* have been more money in the pockets of lower wage earners, in real terms, over the past two years.

Part of what irks here is that "why do people consistently report that their experience of the economy is shitty when the data says that the economy is doing fine and people are experiencing wages rising faster than inflation?" is a /super/ important story. This... is not that story.

I'd argue it is that story...the story being that the media keeps telling lower and middle income earners that they're not doing well as a whole, so even when most of them are doing better than they were, they assume others aren't. Wrongly.

I think one missing part of the story is the positive effect of inflation on mortgage holders, coupled with the hot housing market.

I kind of feel like it’s a wash? Sure you can sell your home, but where will you move? Plus it only benefits homeowners

bsky.app/profile/torr...

AG Failson is doing great, what a special boy.

About half of my neighbors in a middle-income community have already been to Europe this year. A lot of pent-up demand from the COVID years.

Number of pick-up trucks upgraded in the last four years in a very conservative part of Vermont suggests the economy has been good and many people here are doing better. One effect is most of the new Trucks are too nice to put stickers on. The bulk of the Trump Truck messages are gone.

i can't in good conscience click a new york times link.

A lot of reporting depends on an implicit idea that anecdotes are representative of the wider population, and sometimes an implicit idea that when anecdotes and much larger samples conflict, it’s up for debate which type of evidence gives you the correct story about wider population

I knew it was gonna be the NYT

bsky.app/profile/torr...

“Today, Americans 55 and over control nearly 70% of U.S. household wealth. In 1989 they controlled just 50%. Their dollars amount to 45% of U.S. personal spending, up from 29% three decades ago.” www.wsj.com/us-news/baby...

I try not to post the @nytimes.com

You’re generous in calling it “reporting”.

Exactly. It’s not been a summer of journalistic excellence in science,economics, or politics.

I dunno about wages outpacing inflation. According to the Federal Reserve, real weekly wages for full-time workers are $365, which is less than when Trump left office ($376). fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1pQMw

does somebody want to tell them that just because you're financially strained, doesn't mean they stop needing necessities? the fact that i can barely afford groceries doesn't mean i'm going to stop buying them. because i want to stay alive.

yes exactly as keynes said

If there's one concept I wish I could snap my fingers and have everyone understand instantly, it's the marginal diminishing return of money. MPC is second. So much tax policy could be done correctly if the general public grasped these concepts and applied them in their positions.

Which is why he suggests measuring spending on holidays over the summer year over year

Isn't that why Hayes says we should measure by vacations taken?

you mean the vacations poor people don't get to take... because of poverty?

Lower class people have to spend what they make. We dint have anything to 'cut back' on Jesus

Are you saying @tullyquinn.bsky.social, lower class people don’t have any credit card debt?

Breaking news! People facing financial hardship are still buying food and gas for their cars!

Just because people have a fear of Boeing airplanes disintegrating mid-air does mean they will stop traveling. It just means they’ll spend more on drinks while they travel.

"Here's that story on the economy Mr. Sulzberger, made it real shitty just like you asked."

Wondering where they would cut back exactly

all news is now just vibes

Meanwhile... bsky.app/profile/bbcn...

US workers in debt to buy groceries - 'I had to downgrade my life'

US workers in debt to buy groceries - 'I had to downgrade my life'www.bbc.com Americans are taking loans to afford basic necessities - as groceries prices have surged by 25%.

Another winner from the New York Times I see

Someone who grew up in my cohort - the one that intimated that buying your groceries and other necessities was A Bad Thing, because credit. Thing is, when I grew up, I shed that attitude. Customs had changed, except some folks' attitudes seem to have... not.

Revealed preference

Poor people have to spend all their money to live. Not really rocket science

I get the feeling this is glossing over the fact that spending is high because necessities cost more…? I’m experiencing financial strain right now; we’ve cut out all non-essentials, but there are things I literally can’t stop paying for. Food and rent being the biggest, and it just feels hopeless 😔

I have an elderly widow friend. She is lonely, does not drive and her only vice is smoking. Her son forgot to get cigarettes so she asked me to get for her. A pack of cigarettes in California is now over $11! (Money not an issue for her.). Made me wonder how many who struggle with $ still smoke?

I'm pretty sure the point of the high price is to make a vice as unappealing as possible because the resulting poor health is also very expensive for the smoker and society. Cigarette taxes save lives: www.washingtonpost.com/health/inter...

How red-state politics are shaving years off American liveswww.washingtonpost.com Along Lake Erie, three states show how Republican lawmakers’ decisions over decades on cigarettes and seat belts are shortening life spans.

States with the initiative should run ballot issues. We did it when Colorado was still a red state. We used the money to fund K-12 education which led to our gallows humor slogan of “smoke ‘em for the kids.” Even Republicans will vote for sin taxes.

As a former smoker I wish I’d lived in Colorado so I could say that slogan to myself with each dart.

Smoking is now so rare that my 4.5 year old doesn't even know what it is. She is extremely confused by "no smoking" signs because she has never seen a person smoking a real cigarette in her life. Anecdotal, sure, but I was born in the 80s and the difference is staggering.

I live in the South and see people smoking regularly. I always think, “Why are they still smoking?” Lots of people vape here to the point there are tons of dedicated vape stores.

iow "Defiant NYT Stuck in Rut"

People will NEVER say they are not under financial strain. It's the way we are in post-modern 2024 - so much stuff, so many ads, so much media saturation about how bad it is. I predict there will never be another time that people "feel" financially okay. The question is moot.

That’s a neat narrative you literally just made up to discard the voices of countless people. Thank you for showcasing how operating in good faith (not making up unprovable bullshit like that) is just too hard for you

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