reminder that Trump won in a squeaker in 2016 after cheating extravagantly and the vast majority of candidates he's endorsed since his term began have gotten shellacked at the ballot box. he's gonna get destroyed in Nov. and I'm gonna laugh about it
Not sure what has changed from then to now to suddenly have him getting âdestroyedâ. Not that I donât want it to be so, I just donât see it. It will be close again.
I mean he should have been drummed out of the running by his own party on any number of occasions but the whole edifice is so rotten he's just taken it over instead. That's the real tragedy of him, not that he's particularly evil but that we have a party that will countenance him.
just ignore the polls...they've been wrong for almost a decade now....the media has to hype Trump up otherwise they have nothing to fill the air with during an election campaign.
Meanwhile, GOP is losing state house seats in Alabama.
Special elections are a welcome sign but general elections are harder to predict since they bring in so many more infrequent voters. If I could convince Republican campaigns to ignore polls, I would, since theyâd waste a lot more resources.
Polls in this age are trash. Even pollsters will tell you it takes 10,000 phone calls, some made two and three times to the same number in order to get 900 respondents. Only exit polls matter.
By itself that just makes polling more expensive. One theory is that right wingers are now less likely to answer polls due to anti-polling sentiment from their leaders. Campaigns also still have to make choices about whatâs competitive with limited info.
www.politico.com/news/2021/07...
Good article but it asks more questions than it answers. The facts don't bear out that trump is a better candidate than he was in 20' and he had a lot of help in 16'. Barring Biden dropping dead Trump gets his 40% and still loses by a landslide.
One really pernicious thing that has infected us all since 2016 is the âIâd like to see olâ Donny wriggle out of THIS jam, ah, well, neverthelessâ trope, which makes us feel like suckers for thinking (or saying) he could ever fail. The trope was real for a long while but heâs run out of magic.
you're probably right, and polls have consistently underrated dem vote share post-dobbs, but if you thought there was extravagant cheating that time...hoo boy it's going to be nothing compared to this year
hope you are right! I do think a criminal conviction of any kind, even if/when appealed, will turn off any swing voters and independents. Then it's just if he can energize his MAGA base on key states enough to overcome incumbent advantage
