Matt Weiner: my pocket explanation of the polling collapse among young Black voters is, pandemic destroyed a lot of the social structures that had elders making sure the youth voted Democratic, but those are also the social structures that had elders making sure the youth voted

This poll is *wild* Head to head Biden wins under 35s by less than three points. He is up 15 points with 65+. A bunch of the other cross-tabs look basically plausible.

latest fox news national poll is the best Fox News for Biden since October www.foxnews.com/official-pol...

Biden is +5 in the suburbs (+19 with suburban women), +27 with “moderates” (self-ID), and wins 40% of rural whites. If you assume that under-35s are basically impossible to accurately poll in this era the guts of this thing spell an absolute collapse for Trump.

i mean put me down for doubt on him winning 40% of whites period, let alone rural ones

lots of other polling has Biden strong with whites

sure but when was the last time a dem won 40% of rural whites? clinton? maybe carter? i don’t think we’ve won 40% of all whites since 08

I mean, if you think there's nonwhite collapse and Biden is ~tied then white surge is the necessary corollary.

true but i’m skeptical of both tbh i *can* imagine biden improving with whites as he bottoms out in the rurals and winemomification continues

I think gender gap swallowing everything pretty much explains what we're seeing

this poll has men at Trump+15 and women at Biden+17 and at some point that just swamps the other demographic characteristics

this is also a reason I think Blacks in particular will come home, because Black turnout ops are very substantially woman-driven

my pocket explanation of the polling collapse among young Black voters is, pandemic destroyed a lot of the social structures that had elders making sure the youth voted Democratic, but those are also the social structures that had elders making sure the youth voted

this is very much me talking out of my butt, I do not have a lot of first-hand insight into Black churches from my seat in Vermont

My pocket explanation for poor polling is response rates of 0.1% mean the data is pure garbage

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