Nick Davis

@ntd.bsky.social

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political scientist at football-u, outdoorsperson, gardener of two small humans, PI @ http://demos-lab.net, co-comrade @ https://thesisstatement.substack.com

Posts Replies Media

Reply to

John V. Kane

yeah, we'll see what happens after the immunity decision...hoping to get our fatalism questions back out again in the field in several weeks. We've started tinkering with the question wording for the locus-of-control Qs, and I think we'll pull some additional sorting on C-E with the changes.

nice little write-up here by @uptonorwell.bsky.social. in particular, the catplot command is one of Stata's better work-around for paired-grouping histograms, although you're bound by "bar-axis" options, which deploy a weird syntax suite that isnt super intuitive see: medium.com/the-stata-ga...

Lol whelp, guess that’s settled or some comms intern is gettin canned

I’d bet the family farm that the GOP threatening to sue spooked the shit out of them + the only way for Kamala to step in would be Biden willingly resigning and he’s got way too much hubris to do that.

Completely unprompted my youngest drew this today while I was at work. Feels like it’s apropos. Real Nostradamus kid.

Reply to

Nick Davis

we tried to get at this a bit here (sorry for the self plug!): www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

It's such a wild coincidence that the court legalized bribing public officials a few days ago and today says that every activity the US government regulates now goes through them

On the one hand, the election is five months away and the real value of Trump’s conviction is late-cycle attack ads hammering his criminality. Further, setting my expressive aesthetics aside, clogging up the cycle with Orange Man Crook is unlikely to persuade anybody. It’s baked in already. However…

One pretty big issue with this paper is that the DV is probably implicitly race-coded, so I guess it’s not that surprising that “democracy” doesn’t move subjects’ sympathies. If nuclear is ~western (implicitly white), then non-nuclear is probably stereotypically non-white. 1/2

the reluctance of the American public to support aggression against fellow democracies is made possible because the term “democracy” inadvertently primes the presumption that target countries are predominantly white. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Separate but Unequal: Ethnocentrism and Racialization Explain the “Democratic” Peace in Public Opinion | American Political Science Review | Cambridge Corewww.cambridge.org Separate but Unequal: Ethnocentrism and Racialization Explain the “Democratic” Peace in Public Opinion

Reskeet with a hobby that helps your mental health.

I grant this is a weird hobby but whatever.

Idk if anyone follows Peter Attia but holy shit this is a wild post

preliminarily: no change in democrats' diffuse support. supreme court legitimacy is in the proverbial shitter, folks. but, somewhat ironically, even *republicans* are now low key like maybe this thing is off the rails, too.

the big update, here, though, is the introduction in study three of a measure of supreme court "fatalism"...drawing on clinical and social psychology, we attempt to construct a measure of moroseness about the courts outputs. satisfaction measures suck. lets do better measuring specific support.

for a long time, legitimacy theory has argued "see this single item measure of satisfaction or ideological distance is unrelated to diffuse support." but ordinary ppl don't think like this, come'on. instead, this measure of fatalism functions as a summary measure of dissatisfaction.

lo and behold, can you guess what predicts supreme court legitimacy? fatalism. big time. even more so than the sacred cow "rule of law" battery.

The irony about this man writing a book about expertise and then being so thoroughly and exhaustingly wrong on so many topics never ceases to amaze me.

Reply to

Karl (sad trombone noise enthusiast)

i grant the point but 888 cases in 21 years and then extrapolating that its a society killer...man, like, okay, but also thats like an order of magnitude so far down the road that i find myself going "ehhh?" then again recent events dont inspire so idk

idk if ppl still poast work but, tl;dr: dem cands may not push reform bc dems have low levels of legitimacy, which = weaker rankings of Court as electorally important compared to other issues, which has ironic effect of depressing demand for reform. survey + exp: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

media: gee what has the youth so worked up all of us yelling over the past forever:

Obligatory osf.io/preprints/ps...

Based section of children’s books going on here at the local public library

Little more my speed

Bene-Gesserit dog

Reply to

Kevin Reuning

americans (reps+dems) dislike norm violations. but some (reps) still vote for norm-breakers. so we're back at vote choice. again. not public opinion abt norm-violations. vote choice. back-sliding is an elite-constraint problem; cant public opinion way out of it. paper: tinyurl.com/normviopubop...

netanyahu, evergreen:

A general point about Netanyahu’s current political (mis)fortunes: he’s at a point where any decision, no matter how good or bad for others, is costly for him. His entire strategy is predicated on skirting actual decisions so any pressure that forces him to decide hastens his political demise.

this...is really something. words fail me.

'The army also decided during the first weeks of the war that, for every junior Hamas operative that Lavender marked, it was permissible to kill up to 15 or 20 civilians; in the past, the military did not authorize any “collateral damage” during assassinations of low-ranking militants.'

‘Lavender’: The AI machine directing Israel’s bombing spree in Gazawww.972mag.com The Israeli army has marked tens of thousands of Gazans as suspects for assassination, using an AI targeting system with little human oversight and a permissive policy for casualties, +972 and Local C...