Nick Davis

@ntd.bsky.social

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political scientist at football-u, outdoorsperson, gardener of two small humans, PI @ http://demos-lab.net, co-comrade @ https://thesisstatement.substack.com

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I recently had the displeasure of reading some of Roberts’ early judicial schlock during the Reagan years, and golly was he chompin at the bit to demolish the administrative state even then. Dude is a cancerous boil on democracy’s underbelly.

new from me: I wrote about how with two decisions — repealing Chevron and granting Trump immunity — John Roberts has managed to completely rewrite the relationship between the judiciary and the other two federal branches

Opinion | The Roberts Court has checkmated the other brancheswww.msnbc.com The court’s conservative justices have rewritten the Constitution to place the judiciary above both Congress and the executive branch.

Hell of a write up

The Supreme Court’s crisis of incompetencewww.vox.com The justices are awful at their jobs, and they don’t know that they are awful at their jobs.

Reposted by

Nick Davis

Reminder that the BEST-CASE SCENARIO for a Trump re-elect is that he watches reruns and farts around online while Jared, Stephen Miller, and the incompetents bumble about ineffectually. And EVEN THEN, we would lose 4 years off the clock responding to the climate crisis. Which is a death knell.

Project 2025 will double down on protections for fossil fuel industries while killing clean power initiatives, while this is going on, but the media is mostly focused elsewhere for some idiotic reason www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Temperatures 1.5C above pre-industrial era average for 12 months, data showswww.theguardian.com Copernicus Climate Change Service says results a ‘large and continuing shift’ in the climate

These outputs are what we argue lies at the core of the cliff-drop in Democrats’ diffuse support—these are huge democratic deficits!

The Roberts Court has a) took out the central plank of the Voting Rights Act, b) allowed dark money to flood elections/judicial appointments, c) overturned Roe, d) destroyed court deference to administrative agencies, e) given the Prez immunity, they're off to vaycay w/ billionaires to rest up. 1/

Reply to

Michael

I was on a democracy panel with him at CSU this spring and he was a super interesting dude

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Nick Davis

our methods for studying political change and stability typically provide group-level estimates, while our theoretical goal is often to understand individual-level processes. Steve Vaisey (@vaiseys.bsky.social) & I ask whether we can go from the former to the latter in panel data: osf.io/rhf4q

Mbappé treatment worked

Shock follows shock! Exit poll puts Le Pen’s right wing National Rally in THIRD …behind the left wing NFP and Macron’s Ensemble.

Using a peculiar natural experiment where an international football star came out against bigotry this paper

Regardless of where the NYT chooses to ply its wares it’s still a shitty institution whose editorial team is dumb as a box of bricks

Super informative work

I'd like to add some historical context to the discussions around Project 2025. The discourse misses why Project 2025 is so important. As I write about in my book, Heritage has built something like Project 2025 for every election since 1980, but this time it's different. Big 🧵

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Nick Davis

This is super important work. And it looks like it's actually having an effect. Normal people learn about Project 2025 and are scared as shitless as they should be. The Nation, The New Republic, Rolling Stone, Boston Review and others are doing the work that NYT and WaPo are neglecting.

We need more, but credit where due: both The Nation (June 2024 issue) and Boston Review have run a breakdown of the Project 2025 “Mandate for Leadership” document. Media Matters, too. Lots of good work going on digesting this. www.bostonreview.net/articles/ins... www.mediamatters.org/project-2025

Woooooof. Absolutely amazing. In the worst way.

This was a speech during which he did not have to answer any questions, he supposedly knew where he was going to be several days ahead of time, and this is what he came up with

It’s so bad.

Donald Trump has good days and bad days but increasingly only bad days. He's lost it - he can't focus and his brains are leaking out his ears, but the press is very impressed with him because HE CAN STILL SHOUT

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Nick Davis

I think it might be time to revisit this 2016 @vox.com classic from @volts.wtf to remind ourselves why this freakout is happening: The entire US political system is premised, at the atomic & subatomic level, upon 2 equally choiceworthy sides. It can't allow a clear choice, & so will *make* it even

I forget who posted it (maybe it was you, even, lol, and I paraphrase) but I can't get past the "Biden has one bad debate and no other missteps since, Trump the felon says something batshit crazy every day and the media is still on the bad debate guy"

Why the media will lift Trump up and tear Clinton downwww.vox.com Vox is a general interest news site for the 21st century. Its mission: to help everyone understand our complicated world, so that we can all help shape it. In text, video and audio, our reporters expl...

The power of framing pales in comparison to the raw unadulterated power of agenda setting.

I have no idea the best path re Biden but I do know a solid week straight of “Biden Old” and “Rich Dems Worried” above-the-fold stories are *obscene* in the face of SCOTUS using the Constitution to wipe their asses purely in the service of reinstating a felon rapist as president. Crazy-making shit.

The medias obsession (not Greg) w insider party politics at expense of covering fascist chickenshits is how democracy dies. Ordinary ppl are only as good as small-d democrats as their news environment permits, and mainstream media would rather focus on Bidens age than murderous fascists.

NEWS --> Mark Robinson, the MAGA extremist GOP nominee for governor in North Carolina, appeared to endorse political violence against unnamed foes in a recent speech. "Some folks need killing!" he shouted. "It's a matter of necessity!" Video and story here: newrepublic.com/article/1834...

MAGA Gov Candidate’s Ugly, Hateful Rant: “Some Folks Need Killing!”newrepublic.com Mark Robinson, the GOP nominee for governor in North Carolina, has a long history of incendiary comments. But he may have topped himself this time.

You dear reader are allowed to complain about Biden being an old dinosaur till kingdom come but The Institutions have completely lost the plot and therein is where the blame lies. Agenda-setting is goddamned powerful!

Reply to

John V. Kane

yeah, we'll see what happens after the immunity decision...hoping to get our fatalism questions back out again in the field in several weeks. We've started tinkering with the question wording for the locus-of-control Qs, and I think we'll pull some additional sorting on C-E with the changes.

Reply to

Tom Keck

ohh that looks good!

nice little write-up here by @uptonorwell.bsky.social. in particular, the catplot command is one of Stata's better work-around for paired-grouping histograms, although you're bound by "bar-axis" options, which deploy a weird syntax suite that isnt super intuitive see: medium.com/the-stata-ga...

i think the code is smoother in R, personally, but its clear enough with some work. the bigger issue imo is the scaling and kernaling in Stata doesn't always look great when printing to .pdf.

Pretty good little read for presidency week tbh

What I'm thinking about today 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

Reply to

Geoff Bowden

And for all the people who are like “well what could he do to change the narrative he spoke at a rally!” I don’t know how to say nicely “he still looks like shit…bc he’s 80 damn years old! It’s hard being old!” They made us a shit sandwich and are asking everyone to politely eat it.

Who needs diner interviews just go to a Publix in Alabama on the Fourth of July you’re sure to see just about everything.

Reply to

Zander Furnas

Bout to just start a group chat and peace out

New Week 1 Intro American Gov reading just dropped thanks @ryanlcooper.com

Happy Fourth! As a public service, @ryanlcooper will help you update your Constitution by showing you all of the various sections that the Supreme Court has rendered inoperative.

The Supreme Court Has Murdered the Constitutionprospect.org America’s founding document is now an all-but-meaningless scrap of paper. Happy Fourth!

Lol whelp, guess that’s settled or some comms intern is gettin canned

I’d bet the family farm that the GOP threatening to sue spooked the shit out of them + the only way for Kamala to step in would be Biden willingly resigning and he’s got way too much hubris to do that.

We Have Five more Months of This shit.

Ugggggggggggghhhhhhhh Fair.

The answer to political anxiety is political organizing.